Introduction

The following section will consider a range of indicators of safety such as perceptions of safety, policing and crime, as well as the impact of armed conflict. From these indicators a more comprehensive understanding of the relative levels of safety in Tanzania will be gained.

The relationship between safety and firearm ownership is one that is particularly relevant to informing the design and targeting of community-based actions to reduce firearm proliferation. A sense of insecurity is often a primary determinant of firearm possession. By identifying those areas with the greatest sense of insecurity, projects can be targeted to the most needy regions. From this information a glimpse of the future trend of firearm proliferation may also be discernible, as a heightening sense of insecurity may well precede an increase in the demand for small arms.

As stated in the methodology, the fieldworkers were instructed to only interview residents of Tanzania. Thus no effort was made to sample the large refugee population.

Analysis of results

Besides regions bordering Burundi and the Democratic Republic of Congo, namely Kigoma and Kagera, and the regions of Pwani and Morogoro after dark, Tanzania is a relatively safe country.

The main indicator to confirm this is that population mobility is not too significantly hampered by safety. The areas of least safety would be Kigoma and Kagera, while the areas of better safety would be Mwanza and Mbeya. If a distinction had to be made between Kagera and Kigoma in terms of relative safety, then Kigoma would be identified as less safe than Kagera. Certain key problems repeatedly impact upon perceptions of safety in Tanzania, such as the steeply rising crime rates in Tanga and the spill over effect of refugees, and banditry activity in the northern provinces such as Kigoma and Kagera.

On a simple map, it would appear that Mwanza should experience some spill over effect from refugees moving in from Kagera and Kigoma, but the topography of Mwanza plays a significant role in curbing this effect. The strong feelings of safety in Mbeya could also be put down to the region being perceived as relatively more peaceful than in previous years. It should be borne in mind that respondents were asked to give a relative judgement as to the state of safety in their region. Consequently, although safety may not be that good compared to other regions in absolute terms, a previous period of high insecurity that has now passed is likely to be reflected in the appearance of an improved sense of safety. Obviously, the opposite is also true. Relatively speaking, respondents indicated that levels of peacefulness had increased in Mbeya, Ruvuma, Kagera, Kilimanjaro and Zanzibar in recent years, while there was declining peace in Tanga, Pwani and Kigoma.

Feelings of insecurity are more pronounced after dark across all regions, while respondents also feel they are safer within the boundaries of their community than away from their community (such as when collecting wood and water). The stark shift in feelings of safety amongst the respondents from Pwani and Morogoro between the hours of daylight and night implies that the conduct of illegal activities and the movement of people and goods is probably occurring and unsettling respondents. The disproportional feelings of insecurity at night in these communities—even greater than in Kagera and Kigoma—could be linked to illegal activities connected more closely to the urban area of Dar es Salaam. The presence of a large port at Dar es Salaam, at the start of the most direct transport route from the coast to the interior of central Africa, could be one of the factors contributing to this. Dar es Salaam experiences a great deal of movement of imported goods to the land-locked countries of Zambia and Democratic Republic of Congo, and illegal activity may be associated with some of this trade.

The samples were relatively positive about the level of police services provided. It has repeatedly been said that the results may have been inflated because police officers were conducting the survey. However, other factors would impinge on this too, such as the historically dominant role of the police force within Tanzania. The respondents from Morogoro and Tanga were the most positive about the police service, indicating more strongly that the quality of police service was good when compared to other regions. However, it appeared that the good police service in Morogoro did nothing to prevent fears about safety after dark, where respondents were amongst the most concerned about their safety after dark.

Crime is increasing in Tanga, Pwani and Kigoma. What was interesting was that the respondents from Tanga felt the police were doing a good job, even though crime was increasing. Perhaps the response of the police to the crime wave has been positive and hence influenced perceptions of the service.

It is not surprising that crime is increasing in Kigoma given the disruption of public services and facilities that has been caused by the significant rise in population in the form of conflict-fleeing refugees. The police service is over stretched in Kigoma as a result of the larger population needs, and this has allowed criminal activities to flourish. In addition to this, the police service has had to undertake a number of roles they were not trained for, which has placed further strain on their capacity. This includes, amongst other things, managing reconciliation of refugee families, land disputes and medical emergencies.

Overall rates of crime are low in Tanzania and compared to countries such as South Africa it is a much safer environment in which to live. What crime is committed tends to be mainly theft, predominantly house-breaking and cattle theft. There does not seem to be any one region that is more seriously affected than others and the theft that does occur seems to be largely opportunistic. Given the mainly rural nature of Tanzania and the high level of surveillance that exists in rural communities, where the aged often stay at home, the relatively low incidence of crime generally is not surprising.

The relatively high numbers of respondents who felt refugees had a large impact on their community illustrate the negative perceptions that abound in Tanzania about the presence of refugees in the country. These perceptions do not, however, seem to be supported by reality as the incidence of refugees moving into most regions is low.

On the whole, the respondents have very little direct experience of armed conflict and almost none have ever been forced to move due to armed conflict. Yet, armed conflict was a frequent source of worry for some, especially the respondents in Pwani, Kigoma and Kagera. Unsurprisingly, 92% of the respondents from Kigoma and a smaller, yet significant percentage of respondents from Kagera (35%), indicated that refugees have moved into their areas. Given this experience of refugee settlement, negative perceptions of refugees are easily understood and the level of worry more justified. Elsewhere, however, fears of refugees destabilising local communities do not appear to be so well founded.

Perceptions of safety

Frequency of worrying about safety

The respondents did not seem too concerned about their safety. This would imply that the risk to their safety was low. When asked to indicate how often they worried about their safety in general, about being attacked in their home and about being worried about being attacked in their community, the average response for all the regions was above 2.98. This indicated the respondents were seldom worried about their safety, on average selecting a response from the 'from time to time', 'seldom' or 'never' category, as opposed to the 'all the time' and the 'very often' worry-categories.

Table 36: Frequency of worrying about safety

	Arusha	Dar es Salaam	Kagera	Kigoma	Kilimanjaro	Mbeya	Morogoro	Mwanza	Pwani	Ruvuma	Tanga	Zanzibar
About safety	3.87	3.87	3.07	3.14	4.19	4.53	3.66	4.01	3.41	4.05	3.48	4.34
About being attacked at home	3.90	3.71	2.98	2.83	4.25	4.50	3.57	4.02	3.12	3.85	3.65	3.89
About being attacked in the community	3.87	4.03	3.22	3.01	4.26	4.62	3.47	4.09	3.85	3.97	4.00	4.11
Key for mean score: 1 = All the time < > 5 = Never

The respondents from Kigoma and Kagera worried more about their safety (in terms of their general safety, their safety in the home and their safety in the community) than respondents from the other regions. These two regions, situated in the north west of Tanzania, border countries that have been riven by violent conflict in recent years. The Democratic Republic of Congo, Rwanda and Burundi have experienced extremely serious violence—peaceful settlement of the civil wars in DRC and Burundi remains illusive at the time of writing—and refugees have crossed from these states into Kagera and Kigoma. One of the especially destabilising factors is the presence of factions within these refugee camps which heightens the level of insecurity. This has a particularly negative impact on the level of firearm proliferation in these regions, both in terms of illegal weapons in the hands of rebel fighters and the responsive demand for arms as a means of self-defence and security, that a diminishing sense of safety stimulates. The proximity to conflict and the presence of refugees are two of the most plausible explanations for the high sense of insecurity in Kigoma and Kagera.

Respondents in Mbeya and Mwanza were by far the least likely to worry about their safety. The implication of this is that there is little risk to their safety in these two regions.

Perceptions of safety

Perceptions of safety, as measured by responses to questions concerning the respondent's feelings of safety, change according to whether the respondent was in their area or away from the community, and whether it was day or night. Respondents could choose from five possible answers to various questions about their feelings of safety. These responses ranged from very safe to very unsafe. The mean score presented below indicates stronger feelings of safety the closer it is to 1.0, while it indicates weaker feelings of safety the closer it scores to 5.0.

Generally, respondents felt safer undertaking activities in the day than at night, and during the day respondents felt marginally safer within their area than undertaking activities further afield such as in the fields, collecting wood or water.

Table 37: Perceptions of safety

	Arusha	Dar es Salaam	Kagera	Kigoma	Kilimanjaro	Mbeya	Morogoro	Mwanza	Pwani	Ruvuma	Tanga	Zanzibar
Walking in your area during the day	2.00	2.00	1.92	1.98	1.82	1.70	1.63	2.14	1.97	2.12	2.36	1.15
Walking in your area after dark	3.24	3.18	3.19	3.68	2.90	3.06	3.73	3.05	3.79	2.95	3.18	2.11
In your fields/collecting water during the day	2.03	2.08	1.99	2.74	2.12	1.83	1.93	2.23	2.41	2.16	2.57	1.40
In your fields/collecting water after dark	3.70	3.57	3.36	4.02	3.47	3.82	4.17	3.47	4.41	3.59	3.49	3.43
Key for mean score: 1 = Very safe < > 5 = Very unsafe

The respondents from Morogoro and Pwani experienced the greatest shift in feelings of safety between the day and after dark. The respondents from Morogoro indicated a mean level of safety of 1.63 during the day and 3.73 after dark. Similarly, the respondents from Pwani indicated a mean level of safety of 1.97 during the day and 3.79 after dark. This implied that after dark the respondents of Morogoro and Pwani felt slightly more unsafe than respondents from the other regions.

What is interesting about the marginally lower perceptions of safety amongst the respondents from Morogoro and Pwani is their relatively closer proximity to the Dar es Salaam urban area. Nestled around the urban settlement, feelings of insecurity may be higher as a result of the relatively faster and more numerous access routes through the area, which may result in a loss of insulation. In addition, the transient nature of residency with many people passing through on a rural-urban migratory route may further undermine security. As a result there is less sense of community, and consequently weaker authority structures, less sense of responsibility and lower respect for others within a community to which people have less affinity, less vigilance and more anonymity, which all contribute to making it easier for criminals to commit offences undetected. People migrating to urban areas often do so in stages, first moving to the less organised peripheries of the urban area, before making a final move to the urban residential, informal settlements and inner city areas. Particularly in Tanzania, where government policy stipulates against urban migration, people would rather settle in regions with access to Dar es Salaam beyond state detection. Access to Dar es Salaam could imply superior work opportunities and higher order health care and education facilities than other regions in Tanzania.

Level of peacefulness

A factor that holds a strong bearing on perceptions of security is the relative peacefulness of a settlement. The perceptions of the respondents about whether their community was more or less peaceful than in previous years was gauged by the responses to the question, 'do you feel your area is more or less peaceful than in previous years?' Overall, there were five regions that strongly indicated that their area had become more peaceful than in previous years, namely: Mbeya; Ruvuma; Kagera; Kilimanjaro; and Zanzibar. These five regions are all bordering onto neighbouring countries, and have all felt the impact of their neighbouring conflicts spill over into their regions in the past twenty years.

Amongst this cluster of improved peace, there were two regions that more strongly felt that their area was more peaceful, as compared to previous years, namely: Kilimanjaro and Zanzibar. The regions of Kilimanjaro (34% of the respondents) and Zanzibar (33% of the respondents) strongly indicated that their regions were very much more peaceful than before. The three areas which are experiencing declining levels of peace are Tanga, Pwani and Kigoma.

Table 38: Changes in levels of peacefulness (percentage)

	Arusha	Dar es Salaam	Kagera	Kigoma	Kilimanjaro	Mbeya	Morogoro	Mwanza	Pwani	Ruvuma	Tanga	Zanzibar
More peaceful	35	35	53	15	50	65	29	17	15	53	12	47
Same as before	39	26	12	6	2	10	4	42	5	15	8	15
Less peaceful	26	39	35	79	48	25	67	41	80	32	80	38
Mean	2.86	2.95	2.77	3.72	2.67	2.52	3.29	3.27	3.87	2.72	3.87	2.59
n =	77	454	239	234	236	238	228	374	160	221	240	162
Key for mean score: 1 = More peaceful < > 5 = Less peaceful

Table 39: Ability to move around area at will and in safety (percentage)

	Arusha	Dar es Salaam	Kagera	Kigoma	Kilimanjaro	Mbeya	Morogoro	Mwanza	Pwani	Ruvuma	Tanga	Zanzibar
Easier mobility	77	53	59	46	70	80	86	50	78	67	38	54
Same as before	19	26	27	44	19	14	5	39	17	11	15	31
More difficult mobility	4	21	14	10	11	6	9	11	5	22	47	15
Mean	2.06	2.55	2.33	2.60	2.03	1.92	2.12	2.44	2.01	2.40	3.10	2.14
n =	78	458	239	237	236	239	228	372	158	220	240	162
Key for mean score: 1 = Easy < > 5 = Difficult

Ease of movement

Of the three regions (Tanga, Pwani and Kigoma) in which respondents reported that their area was less peaceful than before, the Tanga region was the only one in which respondents felt it was more difficult to move around freely and easily than previously. This could in part be attributed to the reduction in public transport as a result of banditry activities. In the other regions respondents did not have significant difficulties moving around at will. If mobility is not too significantly hampered, one can assert with relative certainty that issues of safety are not of too great a concern for the sample.

Perceptions about the quality of police service

Across all the regions the perception was held that the police were doing an above average job in Tanzania, reflecting well on the police force. It should however be borne in mind that police personnel were conducting the survey and impressions may have been inflated due to their presence when answering this question.

Respondents were asked how they would rate the police service in their area. The respondents from Morogoro and Tanga were the most positive about the police service. According to 80% and 72% of the Morogoro and Tanga samples respectively, the police were doing a good job.

The respondents from Zanzibar were more disillusioned by the level of police service. It was found that 25% of the respondents from Zanzibar felt the police were doing a poor job.

Table 40: Perception of the quality of police service (percentage)

	Arusha	Dar es Salaam	Kagera	Kigoma	Kilimanjaro	Mbeya	Morogoro	Mwanza	Pwani	Ruvuma	Tanga	Zanzibar
Good job	32	53	65	64	65	48	80	66	61	42	72	34
Average job	63	43	20	28	25	40	14	28	34	48	22	42
Poor job	5	4	15	8	10	12	6	6	6	10	6	24
Mean	2.62	2.41	2.33	2.32	1.92	2.59	1.91	2.19	2.42	2.54	2.30	2.90
n =	79	452	239	239	237	239	225	373	1600	22	240	163
Key for mean score: 1 = Maximum amount of time (More time) < > 3 = Minimum amount of time (Less time)

Shifts in level of police service

Compared to previous years, the majority of respondents from all regions except Arusha, Zanzibar and Mbeya were of the opinion that the levels of police services were actually improving.

There were declining levels of police service in Zanzibar and Arusha. It is of concern that in Zanzibar only 34% of the respondents and in Arusha only 28% of the respondents felt that the police service was better than in previous years, while in Mbeya only 43% of respondents were of this opinion. Of these regions, Zanzibar is of most concern as a considerably greater percentage than in any other region (28%), felt that the service was actually getting worse. Given this relatively high level of dissatisfaction attention should be paid both to the actual effectiveness and efficiency of the police service and also to the public image of the service. There should be an assessment of how the police conducts itself, focusing particularly on the image that it presents to the public. It may be that policing practices need to be reconsidered and that public awareness campaigns aimed at promoting a positive profile and bolstering flagging confidence in the police will be needed. Such measures should help to promote a greater sense of security and should enhance the likely success of any firearm reduction strategies.

Table 41: Changes in the level of police services (percentage)

	Arusha	Dar es Salaam	Kagera	Kigoma	Kilimanjaro	Mbeya	Morogoro	Mwanza	Pwani	Ruvuma	Tanga	Zanzibar
Better service	28	50	65	66	62	43	77	51	63	50	68	34
No change	69	46	20	29	22	47	15	43	31	41	26	38
Worse service	3	4	15	5	16	10	8	6	7	9	6	28
Mean	2.65	2.46	2.41	2.26	2.08	2.61	1.97	2.39	2.37	2.49	2.36	2.93
n =	78	452	240	239	237	239	227	372	160	220	239	163
Key for mean score: 1 = Better service < > 5 = Worse service