John Davies and Ted Robert Gurr (eds.), Preventive measures: Building risk assessment and crisis early warning systems, Rowman & Littlefield Publishers, New York, 1999, 285 pp.

The development of early warning systems — models which could anticipate potential outbreaks of conflict, environmental disasters and humanitarian crises — has been under way for a number of years, with many of the projects being developed in the United States. These systems rely on a multitude of indicators to assist analysts in identifying factors which may increase the potential for, or precipitate conflict. The sophistication of these models varies. Some are based on human skills — the scanning and coding of events — while others are developed around computer programmes which can undertake these functions. However, little has been done to date to assess these projects and point the way forward for the practical use of early warning.

In this recent addition to the literature on early warning, Davies and Gurr have drawn together case studies on existing early warning systems and the challenge of creating early warning systems that will work in real-time situations and be responsive to the needs of those policy-makers who must translate early warnings into preventive action.

The introductory chapter of the book posits four questions that the book sets out to answer:
  • Early warning by and for whom?
  • Early warning of what?
  • How early?
  • Is there a need for early warning?
The successive chapters are grouped around themes, which are developed through the case studies of current early warning projects. These themes include structural indicators and risk assessment models; dynamic indicators and early warning models; specialised models and applications; public sector information and early warning systems; and from early warning to early response.

In the first section on structural indicators and risk assessment models, various authors describe the development of projects that incorporate these indicators. Under discussion are the Minorities at Risk project which identifies and profiles 268 national and minority peoples in 112 countries, and use risk assessment in an attempt to identify those who are most likely to start or escalate armed violence; the State Failure project which attempts to develop the correlates for state failure and create a means of identifying those countries in danger of collapse; and a project on early warning of forced migration.

The second section looks at dynamic indicators, and focuses on several current projects, including the Global Event Data System, which tracks and codes interactions of states and non-state community organisations on a daily basis, and a current effort to develop a pattern recognition approach to early warning.

The third part focuses on the application of early warning systems to actual situations and examines the efforts of Human Rights Watch to engage policy-makers in stopping the flow of weapons into Central Africa and a pilot study by the Swiss Foreign Ministry to develop its own early warning system.

The two final sections reflect on the crux of early warning: what type of information is needed, how can available open source information best be utilised, and how can the gap be bridged between analysis and response? The challenge of early warning is to get the information to people who can make decisions and to provide information that will encourage those decision-makers to act preventively to thwart unfolding events.

The continuation of environmental, humanitarian and conflict crises highlights the need for action to be taken prior to the outbreak of these situations. This book by Davies and Gurr which assesses the current state of early warning and suggests practical steps to move the debate forward — and to translate it into action — shows how much is known and how little has yet been done to encourage words into action. However, it also shows the possibilities of early warning and is an encouragement to those in the field to continue their work.

Sarah Meek
Institute for Security Studies

Jakkie Cilliers and Peggy Mason (eds), Peace, profit or plunder? The privatisation of security in war-torn African societies, Institute for Security Studies, Pretoria, 1999, 245 pp.

The last decade of this century has seen significant and far-reaching changes in, among others, the political, military and security landscapes of the world. Changes necessitated a redefinition of concepts such as ‘security’ and ‘threat’, the worldwide thrust towards democratisation became impossible to withstand in most instances, and governments felt compelled to embrace the notions of transparency and accountability. Economic fluctuations reverberated across the world and conditions either deteriorated or became highly unpredictable. Amidst these challenges and transitions, the state in many developing countries increasingly came under pressure. And in this scenario, the ‘old problem’ (as Jakkie Cilliers calls it) of the privatisation of security became transformed into a uniquely contemporary issue. Various conditions feed this phenomenon, among them weak or failed states, regional instability, forms of state authority, changes in the military forces in other states and the gap left after the departure of the superpowers at the end of the Cold War.

Based on a two-year research project, this publication attempts to illuminate the privatisation of security on the African continent from a variety of angles, with contributions by scholars from around the world.

In the first chapter on Private security in war-torn African states, Jakkie Cilliers sets the scene by referring to the status of the global security industry in the 1990s as a lucrative business that is highly specialised and operates without borders. He points to factors which contribute towards the transformation of the problem of mercenarism into a contemporary one, such as the relationships between private security concerns and their countries of origin and the recipient countries, the trend towards outsourcing core national security obligations, and their links with mining. Brief reference is also made of the private security industry’s inherently confusing nature and the difficulties in controlling their activities.

One of the factors contributing to the growth in the private security industry is the large-scale downsizing of the military which is a characteristic of the 1990s. In an insightful article by Peter Lock on the implications for Africa, military downsizing is contextualised particularly with regard to post-World War II activities of demobilised soldiers in Europe and Asia. The implications of the end of the Cold War on arms procurement and military manpower in African countries are discussed, as well as the reduction of the direct involvement of governments, such as that of the United States, in the affairs of African countries. Lock also points to the economic crisis in Africa and the downsizing of the state. The resultant privatisation of state functions and the effects of the political élite who increasingly have to safeguard their power-bases led to the creation of a criminalised ‘shadow state’ that abides to the rules of corruption, arbitrariness and double-dealing. In these conditions, private security companies flourish, with a steady stream of highly trained demobilised soldiers who are too keen to earn a living and with economic and political crises fuelling the demand for their services.

Mark Malan considers The crisis in external response as another exacerbating factor in the privatisation of security. With the African continent continuously under threat of conflict and with conflict erupting and recurring in a cycle of unpredictability, the challenge faced by the UN and other international players to keep the peace seems insurmountable. In this chapter, the available response mechanisms and their limitations are considered by means of examples of international interventions undertaken by the UN in the past. The increasing devolution of peacekeeping responsibilities to regional and subregional organisations is discussed, as well as efforts to build peacekeeping capacity in Africa. Malan’s discussion of the potential to outsource peacekeeping to external actors who work for gains, raises important questions around morality, legality and accountability.

In The collapse of the African state, Richard Cornwell provides an interesting overview of the nature of the state that was inherited from the colonial masters after independence. The effects of economic turmoil on a state characterised by an ultra-political approach and ethnic sentiments were often violent and destructive. At the same time, the demand for service provision and greater accountability on the side of civil society put pressure on the state. International demands for structural adjustment and downsizing led to severe crises as leaders attempted to create constituencies among those who often had their own political ambitions. With a society looking elsewhere to provide services that were once the exclusive domain of the state, and a state that could no longer depend on the international community to save it from turmoil, the door was opened to often unscrupulous external actors to safeguard the state’s interests.

Although the publication refers to a number of private security companies in Africa, it looks at three in detail: Executive Outcomes (EO), Military Professional Resources, Incorporated (MPRI), mainly functioning outside Africa, and Gurkha Security Guards (GSG).

In Executive Outcomes — a corporate conquest, Khareen Pech traces the phenomenon of the mercenary soldier back to the condotierri of the Italian Renaissance. She provides information on the origins of EO as a clandestine agent of the apartheid state, and the company’s many links, different guises and elusive roleplayers. Although EO was officially disbanded early in 1999, the company acted as a consolidated corporate army in Africa. Pech’s chapter divides EO’s activities into five phases: during 1989-1992 it operated as a closed corporation and a faithful agent of the apartheid government; 1993 saw its first significant military operation into Angola; 1993-1995 saw an expansion of its activities and, together with UK companies, it formed a network active throughout Africa; during 1996-1997, it became involved in Sierra Leone, and new South African legislation threatened to put an end its activities. During 1998, EO made renewed attempts to win international contracts and finally, or so they would make it appear, ceased to exist.

In The military as business — Military Professional Resources, Incorporated, Ian Douglas and Jakkie Cilliers provide an interesting case study of a private security concern that functions within the law and on request of agencies of the American government. It is the largest US private military company with a turnover of US $48 million in 1997. It is involved in Croatia, Bosnia, Herzegovina and keeps a low profile in some African countries.

The case study by Alex Vines on Gurkhas and the private security business in Africa offers insight into the wide range of different services provided by the Gurkha soldiers from Nepal. It traces the development of Gurkha Security Guards Limited (GSG) and Special Gurkha Services Limited (SGS). Vines provides important information about GSG’s link with Lonhro, thus pointing to the increasing role played by transnational corporations in African countries. He also identifies specific problems that were experienced with the Gurkhas in countries where they were active, which again raises questions around responsibility and accountability.

Apart from the company profiles, the book also contains country profiles on Angola (Sean Cleary) and Sierra Leone (Ian Douglas). These chapters provide an analysis of the role, nature and impact of companies such as Executive Outcomes and Sandline International in outsourcing security from the state.

The chapter on Private security and international law by Yves Sandoz starts with a general discussion of international humanitarian law before presenting an overview of the debate on mercenarism within the United Nations. This chapter concludes with an analysis of the rules governing neutrality, and a serious call for a consideration of the implications of using private security companies — based purely on principles of cost and profit — to maintain order in sovereign states.

The publication concludes with a chapter that considers the trend towards the privatisation of war and its impact on the conflicts in Africa. The debate about private security companies has moved away from emotionalities to concepts of efficiency and accountability. Reluctance on the part of UN Security Council members to commit soldiers to Africa seems to shift the debate. There is also a greater focus on the collapse of states. Yet, some Western companies and states are handsomely benefiting from the profits of war in Africa. The need for measures to regulate and oversee the activities and interventions of private security companies both on an international and national level is clearly one that should be addressed as a matter of urgency.

An obvious shortcoming in the book is the absence of country profiles of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Congo-Brazzaville which are repeatedly referred to in a number of chapters. This would have served to enhance the reader’s understanding of the practical implications of the activities of private security companies in Africa.

A further shortcoming is the lack of an Index which could have facilitated cross-referencing by students and scholars.

These criticisms notwithstanding, Peace, Profit or Plunder addresses important issues in Africa at the end of this century. It is a timely and topical publication that contributes to a greater understanding of the phenomenon of the privatisation of security and of state functions in general in Africa and how it could be addressed. This is highly recommended reading for all students of Africa, International Relations, International Political Economy and Security Studies.

Jo-Ansie van Wyk
Department Political Sciences
University of South Africa (UNISA)