During 1999 levels of reported crime increased at a faster rate than any other year since 1994. Violent crime increased by almost 10% between 1998 and 1999, more than any other crime category. During 1999 every third crime reported to the police involved violence or the threat of violence. Is South Africa losing the battle against violent crime?

During the first three years after South Africa’s political transition in 1994 overall crime levels seemed to stabilise. The number of reported crimes increased by 2.9% between 1994 and 1996. Over a similar period South Africa’s population increased by an estimated 4.4%.

After 1997, levels of reported crime, measured from one year to the next, began to increase at an escalating rate. While crime levels decreased by 0.3% between 1995 and 1996, and increased by only 1.2% between 1996-97, the increase was 4.8% in 1997-98. This reached a peak of 7% in 1998-99 (Figure 1).

Figure 1 % change in number of crimes reported to the police,
1994/95 - 1998/99

Source: Crime Information Analysis Centre (CIAC)

High violent crime

According to HSRC survey data almost three times as many South Africans felt unsafe in 1999 compared to 1994. In 1999 some 47% of South Africans felt ‘unsafe or very unsafe’, up from 16% in 1994. Much of this is attributable to the country’s extraordinary high levels of violent crime. According to the most recently available Interpol figures, in 1996 South Africa had the highest per capita murder, rape, and robbery and violent theft levels of the 114 countries surveyed.

Between 1998 and 1999 the number of reported violent crimes increased by 9.3%, more than any other crime category. Between 1994 and 1999 violent crime increased by 21.6%. Property crime increased by 14.9% over the same period, followed by commercial crime (6.7%), and violent crime against property (6.6%) such as arson and malicious injury to property (Figure 2).

Figure 2 % change in number of crimes reported 1998-99 and 1994-99

Source: Crime Information Analysis Centre (CIAC)

The only crime category (indicated as ‘other’ in Figure 2) which experienced a decrease over this period were the crimes of illegal possession of a firearm, drunken driving, and drug related offences. These crimes are rarely reported to the police and rely on the initiative of the police for their detection. A decrease in the number of these crimes is indicative of a decline in police activity to combat them.

In 1999 some 32.6% of all reported crimes were violent in nature. This is up slightly from 1994 when 30.9% of reported crimes were violent. In the United States, which is considered to be a relatively violent society, some 15% of all crimes are violent.

It is South Africa’s high level of violent crime which sets the country apart from other crime ridden societies. Given this it is alarming that violent crime increased at a greater rate than any other crime category between 1998 and 1999. Moreover, measured from one year to the next, the increase in violent crime has been escalating since 1996/97 (Figure 3).

Figure 3 % year-on-year increase in number of violent crimes reported

Source: Crime Information Analysis Centre (CIAC)

Uneven escalation

Not all types of violent crime increased or decreased at the same rate between 1998 and 1999. Common robbery and robbery with aggravating circumstances experienced the greatest increase of 15.6% and 10.3% respectively. Assault with the intent to inflict grievous bodily harm increased by 9.5%. This was slightly above the increase of 6.6% for the twenty most serious and prevalent crimes taken together (which include serious property and commercial crimes).

Encouragingly murder continued with its post-1994 downward trend, decreasing by 4.3% between 1998 and 1999. The number of reported attempted murders decreased by 2.4% over the same period (Figure 4).

Figure 4: % change in number of violent crimes
reported between 1998 - 1999

Source: Crime Information Analysis Centre (CIAC)

Conclusion

The expectation which many had in 1994 that crime — especially violent crime — would decrease is not materialising. Crime figures for 1999 continue to indicate that the number of reported crimes is at an all time high. Moreover, the increase in the overall number of crimes, including the number of violent crimes, was greater in 1999 than in any other year since 1994. It is crucial that this trend is reversed before the high levels of violence become so entrenched that the country descends into widespread lawlessness and disorder.

Martin Schönteich
Institute for Security Studies