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Of crime and country:
Reported crime trends in South Africa
(1980 to 1997) and future scenarios
It has become accepted practice in South Africa to argue that official crime statistics — that is, those collected and released by the South African Police Service — provide a poor indication of levels of crime in the country. This is both the result of perceptions that official statistics never seem to match the personal experiences of citizens (and their friends and neighbours) and because crime statistics continue to be interpreted to serve political purposes.
The result is that few South Africans believe official statements on crime levels. This degree of scepticism is confirmed by a recent survey of Pretoria conducted by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS). When residents of the city were asked whether they believed government and police crime statistics about changing crime levels, the majority of respondents showed little compunction in answering in the negative. In particular, white residents of the city were far more likely to be sceptical of government pronouncements on crime (see Figure 1).
Figure 1 Believe government crime statistics?
Source: Institute for Security Studies
These opinions pose a serious challenge to government policy makers. Scepticism over official crime data may make it difficult to sell to the public any success in reducing crime. This is likely to be compounded by electioneering in the run up the national poll in 1999. As it is, the recent tendency of both government and the police to exaggerate the extent of downturns in crime does little to build public confidence in official crime statistics.
Despite public scepticism, however, there is growing evidence that official crime statistics for some categories of crime may in fact be relatively accurate. Detailed survey work by the ISS suggests that across four of South Africa’s major cities — Johannesburg, Durban, Cape Town and Pretoria — reporting levels are remarkably consistent. Reporting rates for murder, hijacking, car theft and burglary are high (although residents of Durban appear less likely to report these crimes) across the cities (see Figure 2).
Figure 2 Percentage of crimes reported to the police
Source: Institute for Security Studies
The same cannot be said however for a range of violent crimes such as assault, sexual assault and to a lesser extent robbery and mugging. Official police statistics on these crimes are likely to considerably under count their actual extent. However, official police data in relation to these crime types should not be rejected out of hand. Police statistics even if they do not show the full extent of any crime are often useful in determining trends over long periods of time.
The graphs below (Figures 3—7) show the development of a range of crime types as reflected by police statistics since 1980. They include the latest data released by the Crime Information Management Centre of the SAPS reflecting crime levels until December 1997.
- The murder figures — generally considered to be accurate — show dramatic increases from the late 1980s but sustained declines since 1994.
Figure 3 Murder
Source: SAPS Crime Information Management Centre
- Robbery with aggravating circumstances, which includes hijacking, cash in transit heists and bank robberies, also shows high levels of growth between 1988 and 1993. Since then, this category of crime has shown real declines to 1996, with a slight increase during 1997. It should be noted that specific data for hijacking, cash in transit heists and bank robberies have only been recorded as distinct from other aggrevated robberies since 1996. Thus, a long term trend cannot yet be determined for these crimes.
Figure 4 Robbery
Source: SAPS Crime Information Management Centre
- Motor vehicle theft shows a steady increase from 1985. The number of cars stolen increased dramatically between from 1992 to peak in 1994. There has however been a sustained reduction since 1994, although a slight increase was recorded during 1997.
Figure 5 Car theft
Source: SAPS Crime Information Management Centre
The reporting of rape and attempted rape cases to the police have shown a steady increase from 1986, followed by a dramatic increase from 1993. While the reporting of the crime continues to increase the rate at which it does so has been less pronounced from 1995. The increase in rape must be attributable to both real as well as a recorded increases in the crime. A greater awareness among women of the issue as well as some improvements at police station level which facilitate reporting have contributed to the increase. Despite the greater propensity to report, however, it is likely that a significant proportion of rape cases remain unrecorded in police statistics.
Figure 6 Rape
Source: SAPS Crime Information Management Centre
- Assault with attempt to do grievous bodily harm (or serious assault) has also increased dramatically. As in the case of rape the most dramatic increases occurred between 1993 and 1994. While the reporting of serious assault continues to increase, the upward trend is not as marked as before. The reporting of serious assault (as in the case of rape) does not reflect the true extent of the crime.
Figure 7 Assault
Source: SAPS Crime Information Management Centre
A brief overview of crime trends since 1980 suggests that increases relate to some extent to the transition to democracy in the country. Indeed, elsewhere high levels of crime have often accompanied transition from authoritarian to democratic rule. This is not to say that crime is necessarily a feature of democracy. Instead, dramatic changes in societies which move from authoritarian to democratic governance often weaken state and social controls, generating increased levels of crime.
International evidence suggests however that states in transition to democracy are seldom immediately able to counter crime. On the one hand, authoritarian governance is usually accompanied by policing completely inappropriate for a democratic environment. On the other hand, the new state is often faced with the dilemma that it is required to govern an (often unstable) new society with the same instruments which were used to enforce authoritarian rule.
If such a broad explanation provides some insights into the causes and failure to manage crime, what will be the likely future development of crime trends in South Africa? One of three scenarios is possible:
- Crime will continue to increase at current levels, peaking in five to ten years.
- Crime will stabilise and then decrease over the next five to ten years to pre-1990 levels.
- Crime will stabilise at high levels and begin to slowly decline over the next decade.
Both the South African experience and evidence from other societies in transition suggests that the last scenario may be the most likely. The consolidation of democracy in South Africa is leading towards stabilised crime levels. But the danger is that unacceptably high levels of crime will remain a permanent feature, unless adequate measures are taken.
Short of massive social and economic disruption, crime will not increase at the same rate after the core period — in South Africa from 1985 to 1995 — of the political transition. Stabilisation is thus probably not the result of more aggressive policing or a more efficient system of criminal justice. Indeed, recent evidence suggests that a critical component of this system, investigations and prosecutions, is weakening and that fewer people are being convicted of crimes in courts.
Reducing (or stabilising) crime in transitional societies therefore does not only entail policing and criminal justice interventions. What is required are new forms of governance and social control. These cannot be developed overnight and will be closely related to the strength of new institutions, formed as democracy consolidates in the post-apartheid order.
Mark Shaw,
Institute for Security Studies
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