A comparison of crime rates per 100000 people across South Africa’s nine provinces between 1994 and 1997 suggests that, barring some statistical problems, the risk of victimisation for some crimes may be substantially higher in particular areas of the country.

National statistics — while important to analyse in order to determine future trends — do not provide a complete picture of the extent of crime in different parts of the country. A focus on different victimisation patterns across South Africa’s provinces is thus required.

An overview of three violent crimes — murder, serious assault and rape — and three property crimes — car theft, burglary and robbery with aggravating circumstances — for the past four years point to substantial variations between the provinces. The Northern Cape stands out as having the highest levels of violent crime. Less surprisingly, Gauteng, the Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal have the highest levels of property crime. The Northern Province consistently has the lowest level of reported crime across all types.

Provincial statistics for murder (Figure 1) suggest that Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal, the Northern Cape, the Western Cape and the Eastern Cape have the most serious problem in this regard. All these provinces however show declines consistent with the national murder trend. KwaZulu-Natal in particular shows substantial reductions in its murder rate over the past four years. The Northern Province has the lowest reported murder rate.



Figure 1 Murder rate per 100000 of the population

Source: SAPS Crime Information Management Centre

The starkest difference in provincial crime totals is to be found in the case of serious assault (Figure 2). The Northern Cape displays levels of serious assault four to five times higher than other provinces. The levels of violent crime concentrated in this single province demand immediate intervention.



Figure 2 Assault with grievous bodily harm, rate per 100000 of the population

Source: SAPS Crime Information Management Centre

While the difference between it and the other provinces is less marked than in the case of serious assault, the Northern Cape displays the highest recorded level of rape. Gauteng and the Western Cape also show high levels. It should be noted that consistent with the increasing national trend, rape levels for a number of other provinces (most notably the Eastern Cape) have shown consistent increases over the past four years. The Free State displays comparatively high levels of rape, although there has been marginal declines over the past two years.

Given that violent crimes are committed against the individual, measuring the rate of such crimes per 100000 people provides a fairly accurate indication of risk. However, the same method works less well in the case of property crimes given that patterns of wealth and ownership are not evenly distributed across the population. Property crimes generally occur in areas where there are the greatest opportunities. Therefore in provinces outside of Gauteng, KwaZulu-Natal and the Western Cape, even if levels of property crime appear low when measured per 100000 people, in fact fewer people may bear the brunt of a greater proportion of crime.

Risk of victimisation for any property crime can only be more accurately determined if the number of crimes is measured per the number of the particular item of property affected in each case: the number of cars on the road in the case of vehicle theft, the number of houses in relation to burglary or cattle in the case of stock theft.

When measured according to the number of cars in the province, Gauteng displays a substantially higher level of car theft than other provinces at 2253 thefts per 100000 of the registered vehicle fleet compared to a nation average of 1594.

In the case of the burglary of residential premises, Gauteng again shows high levels although the
same statistical problems apply. Measured per 100000 housing units, the Western Cape has the highest rate of housebreaking followed by Gauteng and Mpumalanga. All these provinces have ratios above the national average of 2833.

Robbery with aggravating circumstances, which includes hijacking and cash in transit heists, is concentrated in Gauteng (Figure 3), although opportunities are of course higher here. Apart from an increase in Gauteng in 1997, most other provinces display relatively constant declines.



Figure 3 Robbery with aggravating circumstances, rate per 100000 of the population

Source: SAPS Crime Information Management Centre

Mark Shaw,
Institute for Security Studies