The Democratic Transition and Crime in South Africa:

The Record of the 1990s

Has democracy brought increased threats to the personal security of South Africans? The rise of crime prevention to the top of the public agenda during the first term of democratic governance, coupled with South Africans’ declining feelings of safety since 1994, might be taken to suggest that the answer is a clear "yes." A careful look at longer-term trends reveals a more complex picture.

The Human Sciences Research Council (HSRC) has conducted regular surveys of public opinion since the early 1990s, using samples of approximately 2200 individuals that are demographically representative of the South African population. These surveys reveal that slightly more South Africans feel safe now than did so in the years leading up to the 1994 election.

During the first term of democratic governance, public concern has shifted from political to criminal violence. Yet with the exception of a brief post-election "honeymoon," at no time during the decade did more than half of the South African population report feeling safe. Seen in an historical context, the difficulties associated with delivering "law and order" to all South Africans should be neither minimised nor portrayed as unique to the democratic order.

Safer Now than Pre-1994

HSRC surveys show that slightly more South Africans feel safe now than felt safe in the last few years prior to the 1994 election.

Figure 1 plots the trend in feelings of safety in South Africa since late 1991. The most striking aspect is the upward "spike" immediately following the 1994 election, when more than 70% of South Africans felt safe. This period of intense (but temporary) post-election euphoria reflects the well-known "honeymoon effect" observed in new democracies throughout the world.

Figure 1 Feelings of personal safety, 1991—1998

Much has been made of the subsequent decline in feelings of personal safety. Yet Figure 1 shows that the current level, around 40%, is consistent with (or even a slight improvement on) the longer-term trend. The "honeymoon" period was the exception and not the rule.

The current state of affairs, in which less than half of the population feels safe on a day-to-day basis, closely mirrors public sentiment throughout the decade. It points to the entrenched difficulties experienced by governments in South Africa, democratic and otherwise, in creating conditions in which a majority in the country feels safe.

From Political to Criminal Threats

Threats to personal safety since 1994 have increasingly been associated with crime and criminal violence, whereas a few years earlier South Africans were more concerned about acts of political violence.

Perceptions of the reduced prevalence of political violence since the advent of the democratic order are well-grounded in empirical trends. According to figures compiled by the South African Institute for Race Relations, the number of political fatalities during the country’s transition peaked from 1990 to 1994, averaging more than 3000 per year. The average for 1995—1997 was less than one-fourth this level, with a steady downward trend.

HSRC surveys have tracked changes in public concerns, and they confirm that political violence receded after 1994. Respondents were asked which of a range of concerns they "personally worry about the most." Figure 2 presents trends in public concern about crime and political violence.

Figure 2 Crime and political violence as public concerns, 1995—1998

In February 1995, only 1.2% named crime as their top concern, compared with 5.8% who were most concerned about political violence. Since 1994, concern about political violence has tended to decline, while concern about crime has shot up — to the point where it topped the list at 18.8% of respondents in the HSRC’s February 1998 survey.

The status of crime as perhaps the leading issue in the 1999 election campaign was established in the December 1998 survey, in which 41% expressed the opinion that "fighting crime" should be the government’s top priority over the next decade. This exceeded even job creation, which came in second (32%).

Who Feels Unsafe?

A slightly smaller proportion of the population reports feeling unsafe now relative to the early 1990s. This general trend obscures some differences between black and white South Africans, but feelings of personal safety have recently begun to converge across racial lines.

Figure 3 presents a breakdown in feelings of safety by racial category (for simplicity of presentation, "coloured" and "Asian" individuals are included in the totals, but not in the "black" or "white" categories). The figures are derived from surveys conducted in February 1992 and December 1998.

Figure 3 Changes in who feels "unsafe", 1992—1998

The total figures show a decline in the percentage who reported feeling unsafe, from 56% in early 1992 to 49% in late 1998. This improvement in perceptions was driven by a significant reduction in the number of black South Africans who feel unsafe, from 62% to 44%. Meanwhile, the percentage of white South Africans who feel unsafe increased from 55% to 63%. Therefore, although whites generally felt safer than blacks in 1992, the tables turned after 1994, and feelings of physical insecurity are now higher among whites.

This reversal only tells part of the story, though. Recent evidence suggests some convergence across racial lines. As of February 1998, more than four out of five (82%) white South Africans felt unsafe, compared with 43% of black South Africans. This "gap" of nearly 40% in February had narrowed to 19% by December.

The narrowing in the gap is significant, because multivariate analysis of data from the December 1998 survey shows that feelings of safety provide a better indication of whether or not a given South African is likely to identify crime prevention as the top priority for government than race does: Irrespective of race, individuals are much more likely to prioritise crime if they themselves feel unsafe.

Public Safety Issues and the 1999 Election

In considering the potential impact of public safety in the 1999 election, two issues are of particular importance: crime as a campaign theme for political parties, and the possibility of a resurgence of political violence.

As political campaigning has begun to heat up, it has become clear that all major political parties recognise that the public is extremely concerned about the crime situation in the country. This reinforces the argument of a previous article (see Nedcor-ISS Crime Index Vol. 3, No. 1, "Crime and the 1999 Election").

Since 1994, ANC support has remained firm at right around the 63% level it achieved in the 1994 election. The crime issue is therefore unlikely to swing large numbers in the direction of opposition parties, but it could be crucial to the outcome among opposition parties. It could also be important to the efforts of opposition parties to mobilise potential supporters who otherwise would be unlikely to vote.

An unfortunate concomitant of the beginning of the campaign season has been an upsurge in reports of violence that could be regarded as political. For example, national and local leaders of the United Democratic Movement have been killed in recent months. Also, the Western Cape has experienced a spate of pipe bombings which, though not linked in a straightforward way to party politics, can be seen to be driven by a political agenda.

These events serve as a reminder that the spectre of political violence has not yet been banished from South Africa. Although there is no evidence to suggest that violence will return to the very high levels of the early 1990s, the possibility of "cyclical" flare-ups during election campaigns must be considered, and means must be devised to minimise their impact on the "freeness and fairness" of democratic competition.

Rod Alence,
HSRC Election Task Group