|
Police area |
Police stations in each area |
Johannesburg |
Alexandra, Booysens, Bramley, Brixton, Cleveland, Douglasdale, Fairland, Hillbrow, Jeppe, Jhb Central, Langlaagte, Linden, Mondeor, Norwood, Parkview, Randburg, Rosebank, Sandringham, Sandton, Sophiatown, Yeoville |
Soweto |
Diepkloof, Dobsonville, Eldorado Park, Jabulani, Kliptown, Lenasia, Meadowlands, Moroka, Naledi, Orlando, Protea Glen |
Pretoria |
Akasia, Atteridgeville, Boschkop, Bronkhortspruit, Brooklyn, Cullinan, Eersterust, Erasmia, Garsfontein, Hammanskraal, Hercules, Kameeldrift, Laudium, Lyttelton, Mamelodi, Pretoria Moot, Pta North, Pta West, Pta Central, Rietgat, Silverton, Sinoville, Shoshanguve, Sunnyside, Villieria, Welbekend, Wierdabrug, Wonderboompoort |
Durban |
Amanzimtoti, Bayview, Bellair, Berea, Brighton Beach, Cato Manor, Chatsworth, CR Swart, Durban North, Glendale, Greenwood Park, Hillcrest, Inanda, Isipingo, KwaMashu, KwaDabeka, KwaMakhutha, KwaNdengezi, Lamontville, Malvern, Marianhill, Maydon Harbour, Mayville, Montclair, Ndwedwe, Newark, Newlands East, Phoenix, Point, Pinetown, Stanger, Sydenham, Tongaat, Umbilo, Umbumbulu, Umhlali, Umlazi, Verulam, Wentworth, Westville |
West Metropole (Cape Town) |
Athlone, Camps Bay, CT Central, Claremont, Diepriver, Fish Hoek, Grassy Park, Guguletu, Hout Bay, Kensington, Kirstenhof, Langa, Lansdowne, Maitland, Manenberg, Mitchells Plain, Mowbray, Muizenberg, Nyanga, Ocean View, Philippi, Pinelands, Rondebosch, Sea Point, Simon’s Town, Steenberg, Table Bay Harbour, Woodstock, Wynberg |
Port Elizabeth |
Algoapark, Bethelsdorp, Gelvandale, Humewood, Kabega Park, Kinkelbos, KwaDwesi, KwaZakele, Louis Le Grange, Motherwell, New Brighton, Rocklands, Sea View, Swartkops, Walmer |
How the cities compare
A comparison of the volume of crime in the six police areas shows four main trends.
Johannesburg had significantly higher rates of murder, aggravated robbery and residential burglary in 1999 than any of the other areas.
After Johannesburg, the city with the highest murder rate in 1999 was Durban (Figure 1). The risk of being murdered was slightly lower in the other three areas of Port Elizabeth, West Metropole and Soweto than in Durban. Pretoria had the lowest murder rate of all the cities. People living in the Johannesburg area were nearly four times as likely to be murdered as those in Pretoria.
Figure 1: Recorded murders in selected police areas, 1999
Source: SAPS CIAC Pretoria, population figures from HSRC GIS Unit correspond with Stats SA 1998/99 estimates
Residents of the Johannesburg area were nearly two and a half times as likely to be the victims of aggravated robbery as those living in Soweto (Figure 2). The risk of being robbed was much lower across the remaining areas, at between 294 and 397 robberies per 100000 people.
Figure 2: Recorded residential burglary and aggravated robbery
in selected police areas, 1999
Source: SAPS CIAC
Pretoria, population figures from HSRC GIS Unit correspond with Stats SA 1998/99 estimates
The risk of residential burglary was significantly higher for people living in Johannesburg in 1999 than any of the other five areas (Figure 2). The comparatively low rates of burglary in Soweto and Durban should however be treated with caution. It is likely that many burglaries in these areas are not being reported to the police. The rates were also calculated using population figures rather than the number of households in each area. The combination of large populations and household sizes in Durban and Soweto probably results in depressed burglary ratios compared to the other four areas.
More rape and serious assault was reported per 100 000 people in Port Elizabeth in 1999 than in Johannesburg, or any of the other four areas.
In 1999 Johannesburg had the highest volume of crime of all the areas and for almost all the crime categories covered here. The exception was for rape and serious assault. In both cases Port Elizabeth (PE) had the highest rates of all the cities
(Table 2).
Table 2: Recorded rape and serious assault in selected police areas, 1999
Police area |
Number of rapes per 100 000 people |
Number of assaults per
|
Port Elizabeth |
232 |
954 |
Johannesburg |
217 |
923 |
Soweto |
171 |
833 |
Pretoria |
148 |
590 |
West Metropole (CT) |
129 |
466 |
Durban |
117 |
341 |
Rape and assault statistics should always be treated with caution because many cases are not reported to the police. The trends are nevertheless interesting because they differ markedly from those for other crimes. It is possible that the nature of the problem differs in PE, or that more survivors report these offences in PE than in other cities. Also, the consistency in the ranking of areas for rape and assault evident in Table 2 suggests that the nature of the two crimes are related. Many of these offences undoubtedly occur in the domestic and social context between people who know one another.
Significantly more car hijackings were recorded in Johannesburg, Durban and Soweto than in the other three areas. A similar trend was evident for vehicle theft with the exception of Soweto where the level of vehicle theft was surprisingly low.
A comparison of the rate of car hijacking and car theft is best calculated using the number of vehicles on the road in each area. Because this data is not available per police area, the actual number of hijackings and car thefts recorded by the police in 1999 were analysed. More hijackings were recorded in Johannesburg than in any of the other areas. Equally significant is that comparatively few hijackings occurred in PE, West Metropole and Pretoria compared to Soweto, Durban and Johannesburg (Figure 3).
Figure 3: Recorded vehicle theft and carjacking in selected police areas, 1999
Source: SAPS CIAC Pretoria, population figures from HSRC GIS Unit correspond with Stats SA 1998/99 estimates
The trend for vehicle theft is similar to car hijacking, with the exception of Soweto. Surprisingly and quite contrary to trends in the other cities, almost the same number of car thefts as hijackings were recorded by police in Soweto (Figure 3). There are many possible (and untested) explanations for what seems like an ‘under recording’ of car theft. The most likely is that comparisons between violent and property crime ratios in townships and suburbs generally show much higher proportions of violent crimes in the townships.
Where crime is increasing
Recorded crime in South Africa increased by 15% between 1994 and 1999, with an average year-on-year increase of 3% during this time. The problem also seems to be getting progressively worse: the increase of 7% between 1998 and 1999 was the highest percentage increase in any year since 1994.
The situation in Pretoria, Durban, West Metropole and Soweto was similar to the national trend. In Johannesburg and PE however, the trends over time differed: levels of recorded crime remained largely unchanged or stayed the same between 1994 and 1999.
In Pretoria and Durban, all 28 categories of serious crime increased by more than any of the cities covered here — by 19% between 1994 and 1999. In both cases, crime escalated most in recent years. In Pretoria, crime increased by 11% between 1998/99 — significantly more than the 4% average year-on-year increase for the city (Figure 4). Several serious crime types increased faster than the total crime, such as car hijacking, aggravated robbery and vehicle theft. Significantly, murder increased in Pretoria by 12% between 1994 and 1999, while nationally murder has dropped by 11% during this time.
Figure 4: % change in selected categories of recorded
crime in Pretoria police area, 1994/99
Source: SAPS CIAC Pretoria
*These Crimes have already been accounted for under robbery with aggravating circumstances. % change is for 96/99
In Durban the serious crimes that increased faster than all crime in the city were residential burglary, aggravated robbery and rape (Figure 5). Importantly some crimes decreased, such as murder and bank robbery, although the latter was off a low base of 46 robberies recorded in 1996.
Figure 5: % change in selected categories of recorded crime
in Durban police area, 1994/99
Source: SAPS CIAC Pretoria
*These Crimes have already been accounted for under robbery with aggravating
circumstances. % change is for 96/99
Although less crime is recorded in West Metropole than in Durban and Pretoria, the level of crime in West Metropole is increasing almost as quickly. All 28 crime categories increased by 17% between 1994 and 1999 (Figure 6). The rate of increase has however slowed down with only a 1% increase recorded between 1998 and 1999. Several serious crime types did nevertheless increase faster than the total in the city. Car hijacking increased by an average of 26% from one year to the next between 1994 and 1999 (at the same rate as in Pretoria). Murder also increased significantly in West Metropole.
Figure 6: % change in selected categories of recorded crime
in West Metropole (Cape Town) police area, 1994/99
Source: SAPS CIAC Pretoria
*These Crimes have already been accounted for under robbery with aggravating circumstances.
% change is for 96/99
The trends for Soweto were similar to those in West Metropole although crime increased at a slower rate in Soweto, at 11% between 1994 and 1999 (Figure 7). Like in Pretoria, Durban and West Metropole, the serious crimes that increased more than the total in Soweto were car hijacking, residential burglary and aggravated robbery.
Figure 7: % change in selected categories of recorded crime
in Soweto police area, 1994/99
Source: SAPS CIAC Pretoria
*These Crimes have already been accounted for under robbery with aggravating circumstances.
% change is for 96/99
In PE all recorded crime increased by a marginal 2% during this period (Figure 8). Although this is good news for PE, there are signs that the tide may be turning. Overall crime levels decreased each year from 1994 to 1996. Between 1997/98 and 1998/99 however crime increased by 4% and 7% respectively, suggesting that the crime level is steadily growing. Moreover, although car hijacking and car theft decreased from 1994 to 1999, small increases were recorded in recent years.
Figure 8: % change in selected categories of recorded crime
in Port Elizabeth police area, 1994/99
Source: SAPS CIAC Pretoria
*These Crimes have already been accounted for under robbery with aggravating circumstances.
% change is for 96/99
Crime in Johannesburg, unlike any of the other cities, decreased between 1994 and 1999 by 2% (Figure 9). Significantly, several serious crimes also decreased during this time, such as burglary of business and residential premises, car theft, car hijacking and murder. This is positive for Johannesburg. But it is important to note that the decrease in overall crime was recorded between 1995 and 1997. Between 1997 and 1998 levels stayed constant and in 1999 increased by 6%.
Figure 9: % change in selected categories of recorded crime
in Johannesburg police area, 1994/99
Source: SAPS CIAC Pretoria
*These Crimes have already been accounted for under robbery with aggravating circumstances.
% change is for 96/99
In conclusion, Johannesburg still has the highest crime rates of South Africa’s cities. However it is the only city where the risk of victimisation has decreased between 1994 and 1999. Crime is increasing the fastest in Pretoria and Durban, followed closely by West Metropole and Soweto. In all these cities except Durban and Johannesburg, the serious crime that is increasing the fastest is car hijacking. Other worrying trends are the rapid rate at which aggravated robbery and residential burglary are increasing.
Antoinette Louw
Institute for Security Studies
