The dangers of youth?

Linking offenders, victims and age

There is a direct relationship between age and crime. Some believe that age is so fundamental to crime rates that its relationship to offending is called the ‘age-crime curve’. This curve peaks in the late teen years, highlighting the tendency for crime to be committed during the offender’s younger years and to decline as age advances. Moreover, young people also stand a greater chance than average of falling victim to crime, especially violent crime.

Offending, arrest and conviction rates show that throughout the world juveniles and young adults commit crimes far in excess of their proportion of the general population.

According to a 1995 British Home Office report the number of known offenders per 100000 males in England and Wales was 1920 for those aged 12. This increased to 6264 for those aged 15, and 8376 for those aged 18, at which point the rate declined rapidly.

According to 1996 US Department of Justice figures the most common age at which people were charged for committing a crime was 18. In 1993 Canadian youth aged 12 to 17 years comprised about 8% of the population, but accounted for 14% of all persons charged with violent crimes, and 30% of all persons charged with property offences.

No national figures are available on the number of crimes committed by young people in South Africa. Conviction figures, however, show that young males are considerably more at risk of being convicted for a wide range of crimes than older males or females of any age group.

Conviction rates as an indicator of offending patterns

Conviction figures do not necessarily reflect the exact level of criminality of a specific age group — they should be seen as indicating a pattern only. This is because on the one hand young males might be more likely to be convicted than older males. (The latter are more likely to be repeat offenders and might exploit the criminal justice system’s weaknesses better, resulting in a greater number of acquittals. Younger accused are also more likely to plead guilty as they are less likely to receive a heavy sentence because of their youthfulness and the likelihood that they are first offenders.) On the other hand, young accused are less likely to be convicted (especially in respect of less serious offences) because of a variety of diversion programmes which remove young offenders, who admit guilt, from the criminal justice system process.

During 1995/96 (the latest period for which figures are available from Statistics South Africa), 2283 out of every 100000 males aged 18 to 20 were convicted of committing a crime. For males aged 7 to 17 the corresponding ratio was 318 per 100000, and for males aged 21 and over it was 1481 per 100000. For women the rate was considerably lower — their chances of being convicted was about an eighth of that of males (Figure 1).

Figure 1: Conviction rate (all offences) per 100 000 of the population, 1995/96

Source: Statistics SA

Moreover, the discrepancy in conviction rates between 18 to 20 year old women and those aged over 20, is lower than it is for men. This suggests that the criminal activities of men peak sharply in their late teens, while for women the increase is more gradual and less pronounced.

For serious crimes the per capita conviction rate for males aged 18 to 20 is considerably higher compared to that of older men, and women of all ages (Figures 2 to 4).

Figure 2: Conviction rate for murder per 100 000 of the population, 1995/96

Source: Statistics SA

Figure 3: Conviction rate for robbery per 100 000 of the population, 1995/96

Source: Statistics SA

Figure 4: Conviction rate for assault per 100 000 of the population, 1995/96

For example, during 1995/96 just under 42 out of every 100000 males aged 18 to 20 were convicted of murder. For males aged 7 to 17 the corresponding ratio was about 5 per 100000, and for males aged 21 and older it was 26.9 per 100000 (Figure 2). For robbery the discrepancy in conviction ratios was even greater between the age groups. Thus about 109 out of every 100000 males aged 18 to 20 were convicted of robbery. Less than a third, or 30.4 out of every 100000 males aged over 20, were convicted of robbery. On average, less than one out of every 100000 females (across all age groups) was convicted of robbery (Figure 3).

For all offences the per capita conviction ratio for those older than 20 to those aged between 18 and 20 is 1:1.6 (Figure 5). This means that in the 20+ age group, for every 10 people per 100000 who were convicted in 1995/96, 16 per 100000 youths were convicted in the 18 to 20 age group. The ratio is highest for robbery without aggravating circumstances (1:3.9). Burglary (1:3.2), rape (1:2.4) and theft (1:1.9) all have ratios above the average. Of all the major offence types it was only for fraud and forgery (1:0.7) that persons above the age of 20 stood a greater per capita chance of being convicted than those aged 18 to 20.Figure 5: Number of convictions for 18 - 20 year olds for every one conviction for those 21 years and older, per capita, 1995/96

Figure 5: Number of convictions for 18 - 20 year olds for every one conviction for those 21 years and older, per capita, 1995/96


Source: Statistics SA

Young adults are also over represented in the awaiting trial sections of South Africa’s prisons. In mid 1999, almost 43% of the awaiting trial population was between 18 and 25 years old. Yet, this population group comprises just under 20% of the general population (Figure 6).

Figure 6: Unsentenced prisoners, by age category, June 1999

Source: Statistics SA

Young people are also disproportionately likely to be victims of crime. The Victims of Crime Survey conducted by Statistics South Africa and the Department for Safety and Security found that of all individuals who had experienced at least one violent crime in 1997, almost a third (31.5%) were aged 16 to 25. The level of victimisation consistently declines with age. For non-violent crime, the 26 to 35 age group experienced the highest level of victimisation (30.1%), after which the level of victimisation declines with age (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Victimisation rates for violent and non-violent crimes in 1997, by age

The links between crime levels and age demographics have been shown in countries around the world. But South Africa faces a more serious challenge given the high proportion of young people in the population (Figure 8). The message this sends to policy makers, and those in search of solutions to the country’s crime problem, is clear. Crime prevention projects are urgently needed. These should aim to reduce the risk factors for youth offending (in other words the causes for crime) rather than simply convicting and incarcerating more young people. The commitment of the NGO sector to such projects — through the activities of NICRO for example — is significant. But given the scale of the problem, government will have to do far more than strengthen the criminal justice system.

Figure 8: Age distribution in South Africa, 1996

 
Source: Statistics SA

Martin Schönteich
Institute for Security Studies