Generally, respondents had a fairly inaccurate idea about the extent of crime — especially violent crime — in South Africa. The number of serious crimes reported to the SAPS increased slightly between 1994 and 1999. Measured on a per capita basis the number of serious crimes reported actually declined over this period. Yet, four-fifths of the survey respondents thought that the country’s crime rate had increased significantly during this period. While respondents correctly felt that crime had increased more nationally than it had in their area, most thought that crime in their area had increased substantially.

Most respondents underestimated the number of murders that are committed in South Africa. While just under 25 000 people were murdered in 1998, half of the respondents estimated that 5 000 or fewer people were murdered.

About a third of all crimes reported to the SAPS involve violence or the threat of violence. Respondents were more pessimistic when trying to guess the proportion of crimes which involve violence in South Africa. Just over half of the respondents thought that 80 or more out of every 100 crimes involved violence or the threat of violence. Four-fifths of the respondents thought that violent crimes were more serious than property crimes.

Out of all crimes reported to the police only about 12% are solved and end up in the prosecution of the culprits.1 The perceptions of respondents about the criminal justice system’s ability to solve and prosecute crimes were considerably more positive. About half of the respondents thought that 50% of all reported crimes were solved or prosecuted.

Just under half of all convicted offenders go to prison. Three out of four respondents thought that less than half of all convicted offenders received a prison sentence. Very few respondents believed that convicted prisoners remained incarcerated for the full duration of their sentences: three-quarters of the respondents thought that an offender sentenced to 10 years’ imprisonment would spend seven years or less in prison.

Respondents were asked whether they thought that the crime rate in the country had changed since 1994. The vast majority (83%) thought that, compared to 1994, there was much more crime in the country. A further 7% indicated that there was slightly more crime. Only one out of ten respondents thought that crime levels had remained the same or had decreased.

Rural respondents were the most positive with 65% stating that there was much more crime in the country compared to 1994, while 86% of respondents in small towns and urban areas thought so. Moreover, fewer black respondents (79%) thought there was much more crime, compared to white (83%) and coloured (92%) respondents. Female respondents were also more negative (with 86% stating that there was much more crime) than male respondents (80%).

Respondents’ perception of whether the crime rate had changed since 1994 was not significantly affected by the fact that they had been victims of crime over the previous two years. In fact, those who had been victimised, were slightly less likely (81% compared to 85% of those who had not been victimised) to say that crime had increased significantly.

According to the Crime Information Analysis Centre (CIAC) of the SAPS, the twenty most serious crimes (which make up 99.3% of the volume of all serious crimes) increased from 1 998 000 reported crimes in 1994, to 2 154 000 reported crimes in 1998 – an increase of 7.8%.2 South Africa’s population increased by just under 10% over the same period. In the Eastern Cape, the reported number of the twenty most serious crimes increased from 244 176 in 1994, to 255 474 in 1998 – an increase of 4.6%. Reported crime in the Eastern Cape consequently increased less than the national average between 1994 and 1998. Moreover, measured on a per capita basis, the Eastern Cape had higher reported crime levels in 1998 than the national average for four out of the twenty crime categories only: murder, assault with the intent to inflict serious bodily harm, stock-theft and arson. In respect of the other crime categories, such as attempted murder, robbery, rape, common assault, all forms of theft (except stock-theft) and fraud, the per capita reported crime rate in the Eastern Cape was below the national average. The number of reported murders in South Africa decreased from 26 832 in 1994 to 24 875 in 1998 – a decrease of 7%. In 1994, there were 3 769 reported murders in the Eastern Cape, down from 4 492 in 1998 – a decrease of 16%. Over the same period, the proportion of reported murders decreased to a greater extent only in one other province: KwaZulu-Natal.3 According to the CIAC, 31.9% of serious crimes reported in South Africa in 1998, involved violence or the threat of violence. This is a slight increase from 1994 when the proportion of reported crimes involving violence or the threat of violence was 30.9%.4

Respondents generally felt that, since 1994, crime had increased more on a national level than in the area where they lived. Nevertheless, when asked whether they thought that the crime rate had changed in their area since 1994, just under two-thirds (63%) thought there was much more crime. A further 15% thought there was slightly more crime, and a quarter thought that local crime levels had stayed the same or had decreased.

As with respondents’ perceptions of changes in the national crime level, rural respondents were the least likely to think that crime had increased significantly in their area. However, black respondents (who were the least likely to think that crime had increased much on a national level), felt the strongest that crime showed a large increase locally (67%), followed by white (59%) and coloured (58%) respondents.

Respondents’ perception of whether the local crime rate had changed since 1994 was not significantly affected by the fact that they had been victims of crime in the previous two years.

When asked how many murders were committed, in their opinion, ‘in South Africa last year’ (1998), half of the respondents thought 5 000 or less, and two-thirds thought there were fewer than 25 000 murders. Rural and black respondents generally gave lower estimates of the number of murders in South Africa than urban and white respondents. 

PERCEPTIONS OF VIOLENT CRIME

Respondents were asked to estimate what proportion of crimes recorded by the police throughout the country involved violence or the threat of violence. The vast majority of respondents thought that violence — or the threat of violence — played a part in the commission of most crimes.

Just over half of the respondents thought that 80 or more out of every 100 crimes involved violence or the threat of violence. Of the respondents, 79% thought that more than half of all crimes involved violence or the threat of violence, while 28% thought that just under a third of all crimes involved violence or the threat of violence.

Urban respondents were slightly more inclined than rural and small town dwellers to believe that violence played a role in the majority of reported crimes. Whites were more likely to think that more than half of all crime involved violence: 93% of white respondents, as compared to 87% of black and 83% of coloured respondents.

Most respondents (83%) thought that violent crimes were more serious than property crimes. Only 1% thought that violent crimes were less serious, while the remainder (15%) thought that violent crimes were ‘as serious’ as property crimes. Most respondents felt that violent crimes were more serious than property crimes because the former had a greater negative impact on people’s lives and affected victims psychologically, and because life had greater value than property.

Respondents in the urban centres were slightly more inclined to feel that violent crimes were more serious than property crimes, than their counterparts in small towns and rural areas. White respondents were most likely to argue that violent crimes were more serious than property crimes (87%), than coloured and black respondents (83% and 82% respectively).

White focus group participants in Port Elizabeth felt that most reported crimes involved violence, as less serious crimes (i.e. those not involving violence) were generally not reported. They also argued that the proportion of crimes involving violence had increased over the last decade — which was echoed by the Umtata focus group. Black focus group members in Port Elizabeth thought that the most commonly reported crimes were rape, domestic violence where the husband abused his wife, and murder — all of which involved violence. Coloured and Asian focus group participants in the city felt that the law protected criminals as they had more rights than victims of crime. As a result, criminals had become more brazen, and were more inclined to use violence than in the past.

Members of the farming community in Graaff-Reinet stated that many property crimes were not reported, especially in the case of less serious property offences as it was not worth the effort to report such crimes. Black and coloured male focus group members in Graaff-Reinet felt strongly that violent crimes were committed by gang members as most of them carried firearms or knives. Thabankulu focus group participants thought that many violent crimes were alcohol-related, as many youths ended up in fights and assaulted each other at the local shebeen (unlicensed bar).

White focus group members in Grahamstown were more realistic in their assessment of the prevalence of violent crime. They thought that less than half of all reported crime in their area involved violence. 

To the question of what proportion of crimes recorded by the police were prosecuted or solved when the accused person admitted guilt, the respondents were almost evenly split between those who thought that less than 50% of reported crime were prosecuted or solved, to those who thought that this occurred in more than half of all reported cases.

Small town dwellers were the most positive in thinking that a majority of cases were solved, urban respondents the least. That is, while 52% of respondents resident in small towns believed that half or more of all reported crimes were solved or prosecuted, only 40% of rural respondents, and 38% of urban respondents thought so. Black respondents were the most positive, and whites the least. Thus, 51% of black respondents thought that half or more of all reported crimes are prosecuted or solved. For coloured and white respondents, the comparable proportions were 42% and 34%, respectively.

In 1998, some 2.2 million crimes were reported to the South African Police Service, of which 259 000 cases (or 12%) resulted in a prosecution or in a guilty plea by the accused person.5 Nine out of ten survey respondents thought that more than 12% of reported cases were prosecuted or solved to result in a guilty plea by the accused person.

Focus group findings

White focus group members in Port Elizabeth felt that the police often solved a case, but that the courts then bungled the case’s prosecution. The city’s black focus group participants felt that the police solved very few cases, possibly because they did not have enough vehicles to investigate crimes and to look for suspects. This focus group also implied that some police officers might be corrupt, as some officers based their decision to investigate a case or not on the identity of the complainant. The coloured and Asian focus group (in Port Elizabeth) felt that many cases were not solved because of police negligence. They felt, however, that the police should not be blamed for this as police officers had no job satisfaction, no job security, no incentives, and worked under physically dangerous conditions.

The farming community in Graaff-Reinet felt that few crimes were solved because the police did not have the personnel or the resources to do their job adequately. Coloured and black male focus group participants in Graaff-Reinet stated that many gang-related crimes were not solved because police officers were too scared to investigate them. Moreover, it was felt that some police officers were corrupt and were bribed by the persons whom they investigated to drop the cases against them. Many crimes were not solved because of the justice system’s ineffectiveness. For example, culprits were arrested by the police, but then released on bail. The coloured and black female focus group in Graaff-Reinet also blamed the courts, arguing that many cases were postponed so often in court that they were eventually dropped altogether.

White focus group members in Grahamstown felt that the police were generally doing a good job and that they tried to solve most of the crimes reported to them. However, the group stated that they would prefer to report crimes to private security companies. Members of the Umtata focus group felt that the police rarely solved a case without the help of the community. Moreover, it was felt that police officers sometimes said that they could not do anything about a crime unless the victim could identify the suspect.

Almost three-quarters (72%) of respondents thought that less than half of convicted offenders receive a prison sentence. This view was the strongest in rural areas (80% of rural respondents), followed by urban centres and small towns (75% and 68%, respectively). Moreover, white respondents were most likely to think that less than half of convicted offenders received a prison sentences (82%), followed by coloured and black respondents (72% and 67%, respectively).

Most (78%) respondents thought that the number of convicted offenders who had been sent to prison, had increased over the past five years (1994-99). Twelve per cent of respondents thought the number of convicted prisoners had decreased, while 8% thought prisoner numbers had not changed. The feeling that prisoner numbers had increased, was stronger among urban and small town respondents (where 80% thought so), compared to rural respondents (62%). Coloured respondents were most likely to think that the number of sentenced prisoners had increased (86%), than white or black respondents (78% and 76%, respectively). 

Respondents were asked how long, on average, they thought a person sentenced to 10 years imprisonment will actually spend in prison. The majority of respondents thought five years or less (54%). Three-quarters of respondents thought seven years or less, and only 7% thought that an average offender will be incarcerated for the full duration of the sentence.

Between January 1994 and June 1999, the number of prisoners in South African prisons increased from 115 827 to 154 213 – an increase of 33%. This has led to massive overcrowding as the country’s 231 prisons were built to accommodate 99 400 inmates. Prisoner numbers have not increased evenly in respect of sentenced and awaiting trial prisoners. In the five and a half years after January 1994, the number of awaiting trial prisoners increased from 22 757 to 54 107 – an increase of 138%. Over the same period, the number of sentenced prisoners increased from 93 070 to 100 106 – an increase of 8%. According to the 1996 Nedcor project on crime, violence and investment, every 100 prosecutions in South Africa result in 77 convictions, and in the imprisonment of 36 convicted accused. In other words, out of every 100 convicted persons, 47 will end up serving some time in prison. The Nedcor project also found that out of every 100 persons sentenced to imprisonment, an average of 22 will serve a prison sentence of two years or longer.6

Rural respondents were most likely to think that convicted prisoners spent the bulk of their sentence incarcerated. Only 12% of rural respondents thought that a person receiving a ten-year prison sentence would serve five years or less, while 55% of respondents in small towns, and 65% of urban respondents thought so. If the respondents’ answers are broken down by racial groups, 67% of white, 53% of coloured, and 47% of black respondents thought that the average criminal who received a ten-year prison sentence would serve five years or less. 

According to the Correctional Services Act of 1998, a person sentenced to imprisonment for a definite period must serve at least a quarter of the effective sentence imposed or the non-parole period, if any – whichever is the longer – before being considered for placement under correctional supervision.7 A prisoner serving a determinate sentence may not be placed on parole until he has served the stipulated non-parole period. However, parole must be considered whenever a prisoner has served 25 years of a sentence.8 A person who has been sentenced to life imprisonment, may not be placed on parole until he has served at least 25 years of the sentence. However, a prisoner may be placed on parole on reaching the age of 65 if he has served at least 15 years of his life sentence.9 The minister of correctional services may place any prisoner on community corrections provided that he is satisfied that the prison population is reaching such proportions that the safety, human dignity and physical care of prisoners are affected materially.10 Moreover, the president may remit any part of a prisoner’s sentence. The president may also authorise the placement on correctional supervision or parole of any sentenced prisoner.11

INTERPRETATION OF FINDINGS

The survey found widespread ignorance among the public in the Eastern Cape about crime and criminal justice statistics. Misperceptions were systematic rather than random, in that significant majorities overestimated the increase in crime levels since 1994, and the proportion of crimes involving violence or the threat of violence.

The police’s CIAC frequently release reported crime figures for South Africa that receive wide coverage in the (mainly print) media. The point has often been made by the CIAC that crime levels have not increased substantially since 1994. There could be a number of reasons why people disbelieve, ignore or are unaware of published crime statistics.

Firstly, the media tend to emphasise increases rather than decreases in the crime rate. Increases of certain crimes (for example rape) receive much media coverage, while significant decreases in other crimes (such as murder) receive less emphasis by the media. Secondly, large proportions of the population simply miss or forget relevant newspaper stories and broadcasts, or disbelieve official crime statistics.12 Thirdly, police figures might be somewhat of an unreliable guide to crime trends. During 1994-96, many reported crimes (especially those committed in the erstwhile homelands and TBVC states) were not captured in the police’s statistical net.13 Moreover, certain crimes have notoriously low reporting levels. Fourthly, while reported levels of crime did not increase substantially between 1994-99, crime levels did not change evenly throughout the country or even within the different provinces. For example, traditionally white middle class suburbs and shopping areas which were heavily policed and segregated in the past, experienced a significant increase in crime after 1994. This was because of a shift in policing resources to other areas, and because non-residents (including criminals) had greater access to these areas than was the case in the past.

Survey respondents clearly overestimated the proportion of crimes which involved violence or the threat of violence. Research in other countries has shown that violence is central to public conceptions of crime.14 One explanation for this is that the news media disproportionately report crimes of violence. Moreover, many South Africans have developed a habit of speaking about crime, and passing on anecdotes about particularly violent crimes they have read or heard about. This in itself serves to fuel people’s perceptions about high levels of crime in their community.

Moreover, certain types of violent crime did increase substantially after 1994. While the 20 most serious reported crimes increased by about 8% between 1994 and 1998, carjacking increased by 126% and common robbery by 92% over the same period. The crime of carjacking enjoys a high media profile, and common robbery (that is, robbery without the use of a dangerous weapon, such as a mugging) is a random crime which can happen to anyone walking down a busy street. Both crime types, therefore, might instil a high level of fear in the average person.

While national per capita reported crime levels have decreased and the proportion of crimes involving violence have remained constant, people’s fear of crime has increased. In 1994, a minority of South Africans felt unsafe (16%) living in South Africa, with most feeling safe (73%). In 1998, almost half of South Africans felt unsafe (49%), and only 45% felt safe living in South Africa.15 The public’s misconceptions about the increase in levels of crime and the extent of violent crime should be addressed. There is a clear need for an ongoing information campaign to educate the public about the crime situation in the country. Such a campaign would have to provide an honest assessment of the crime situation to gain the public’s confidence, but emphasise any positive developments in the state’s fight against crime.

A majority of respondents were more optimistic about the criminal justice system’s ability to solve and prosecute crimes successfully than what official figures indicate. Crime solving and prosecution rates receive little publicity in the news media. Accordingly, it is not surprising that most members of the public had an inaccurate idea of these statistics. It is likely that most respondents had little idea about the actual clearance rate, and were simply guessing. The response most frequently chosen (by over one out of four respondents) was that exactly 50% of all crimes were solved or prosecuted — the successful bluffer’s way of expressing ignorance.16

Respondents living in small towns, who were the most positive in thinking that a majority of crimes were solved, were also most likely to say that the criminal justice system was performing well. They were also positive about the performance of the various agents of the criminal justice system (see the section on this topic in the next chapter). There is a positive correlation between respondents with a positive view of the criminal justice system and the people working within it, and the belief that a high proportion of crimes are solved and prosecuted.

While almost half of all convicted persons are sent to prison, a substantial majority of respondents thought that this was not the case. As is the case with respondents’ views on sentencing (see the chapter on ‘Opinions about sentencing and sentencers’), there is a general perception that the courts are considerably more lenient with convicted criminals than what is actually the case. As this erroneous perception is in itself a cause of dissatisfaction with the criminal justice system, there is a need to educate the public about the courts’ use of imprisonment as a sentencing option.

The survey results and the focus group discussions display high levels of ignorance about the basic purpose and function of the criminal justice system. There was, for example, a dearth of knowledge among many focus group participants about the role of the courts, the purpose of bail, and the role of certain court official, such as prosecutors and interpreters. Some focus group participants stated explicitly that they did not know how the criminal justice system worked, and that they had been abused by police officers in the past because they were unaware of their rights and the police’s responsibilities. The various agencies comprising the criminal justice system would be well advised to educate the public about their purpose, function and role in the fight against crime.