Chapter 9

PEACE STUDIES GROUP PILOT STUDY

Background

During 1999, the Peace Studies Group of the University of the Witwatersrand, with the assistance of the Directorate of Separation of the Department of Defence, completed a pilot study on the potential demobilisation of defence personnel.69 The purpose of this pilot study was to establish a ‘snap-shot’ of the socio-economic profile of soldiers likely to be retrenched in order to formulate a comprehensive reintegration programme and thus to assist former combatants to find suitable employment in civil society. The study was motivated by the proposed retrenchment of SANDF soldiers.

Methodology

A random sample of 2 000 from a list of 20 000 ‘most likely to be retrenched soldiers’ was selected for this survey.70 All data was provided by the Personnel Division of the Department of Defence by means of accessing electronic personnel files. In order to avoid unnecessary anxiety among personnel, no face-to-face interviews were conducted It was suggested that such interviews to complete the socio-economic survey would be conducted at a later stage, once soldiers had been informed of their imminent retrenchment.

The data that was extracted from the department’s files included rank, military unit, military specialisation, population group, age, gender, marital status, number of dependants, home language, home address, length of service with statutory/non-statutory forces before joining the department, level of education and education/training programmes completed in the Department of Defence.

Survey results

Of the soldiers ‘most likely to be retrenched’, 92.3% were male and 7.7% were female. The result is consistent with the objective of increasing the number of women serving in both combat and non-combat roles.

Surprisingly, only 3% of those earmarked for retrenchment were white, while 92% were African. This appeared to be inconsistent with the Defence Review’s express aim to ensure that, over the long term, the Department of Defence becomes broadly representative of South Africa’s population composition.

There was a large variation in the ages of soldiers most likely to be retrenched. However, a significant number fell within the group aged 25-33 years.

The home language of soldiers who would potentially be retrenched varied considerably with significant numbers speaking IsiZulu, SeSotho and IsiXhosa. It was suggested that any training, or skills enhancement programmes should ideally provide courses in the various home languages to ensure maximum impact.

The survey indicated that 71.6% of soldiers to be retrenched were unmarried. This could allow for greater flexibility in seeking employment after retrenchment.

The vast majority (76%), had no dependants, suggesting that the impact on families and extended families would be limited.

The majority of respondents (50.8%), had completed grade10 or 12, which suggested a reasonable educational foundation for enhanced skills development and job-specific training.

The home addresses of respondents varied widely and were dispersed throughout the country. Retrenched soldiers were not expected to be concentrated in any city or subregion.

Nearly three-quarters of the proposed retrenchments were expected to occur at the rank of private (72.9%), while the remaining retrenchments were nearly evenly divided between lance corporals (13.8%) and corporals (13.4%).

Just under half (48.6%) of the specialisations of the potential retrenchments were in the area of infantry non-commissioned officers (NCOs). The next largest specialisation was in the area of material supplies clerks (20.1%), personnel officers (8.9%), military intelligence NCOs (6.6%), vehicle fitters (6.2%), caterers (3.8%) and service trainers (1.2%). All other specialisations were under 1%.

A quarter of the target group surveyed were found to be in the Kruger Park Unit (KPU) (26.3%), while the other significant unit was the department’s Main Ordinance Division (4.9%). All the rest were less than 4%.

The average length of service in the Department of Defence among the target group was five years (with the bulk of soldiers joining from around 1993-1995).

Among the target group, the majority were once part of the MK non-statutory forces (42.5%), the next largest group originally part of the SADF (32.5%), followed by a smaller segment of APLA non-statutory forces (12.8%) and the rest a combination of the various homeland militaries (less than 5%).

The majority of respondents (65.6%) did not list their terms of service with the statutory or non-statutory forces.

The majority of personnel had not participated in any training programmes (60%). Of those who had, 17.6% took driving and maintenance training programmes, followed by 8% who indicated that they received some computer training.

A cross-tabulation of population groups with rank among personnel indicated that 92% of all potentially retrenched soldiers were of African origin, with the rest of the target population group consisting of percentages of less than 5%. Of the African soldiers, 69.4% were privates, 13.1% were corporals and 9.5% were lance corporals.

Survey conclusions

From the data, it became clear that the profile of the prospective retrenched soldier was that of a 29-year old male of African origin. He would be unmarried and without dependants, and was a former MK or SANDF soldier serving as an infantry NCO in the military for five years. The findings of the survey regarding the skills and training of potentially retrenched soldiers indicated that, while half had been educated up to grade 10 or 12, the majority (60%) had no further training since joining the SANDF. Of those who had, less than 20% participated in driving and maintenance training programmes and only 8% in some form of computer training.

As most soldiers identified in this study had only five years of service in the SANDF, the value of retrenchment packages would be relatively low. According to the findings of the study, the overwhelming number of potentially retrenched soldiers are unmarried (71.6%) and without dependants (76%) and will thus not have additional financial burdens to consider. This would presumably mean that the pension payout per soldier would last longer. Conversely, it could be argued that spouses and dependants are more than just an additional source of income and social stability that a single former soldier would not have.

The pilot survey included an estimate of HIV/Aids infection among SANDF personnel based on the Metropolitan-Doyle model, developed by Metropolitan Life. The model suggested an infection rate of approximately 11% in the country’s working population, with an increase to 18% by 2005.71 It was therefore assumed that approximately 11% of retrenched soldiers would be HIV-positive and would require special assistance. However, a Mail & Guardian report of March 2000, suggested that the rate of HIV/Aids infection in the SANDF may be higher. Figures were apparently based on a leaked report taken from preliminary HIV-testing conducted by the SANDF.72 Metropolitan Life Aids researcher, Dr Thomas Muhr, has suggested that over 20% of personnel of the SANDF may be HIV-positive. Muhr based his estimate on statistics from other African states where soldiers were twice as likely as the civilian population to contract HIV/Aids.73 Whatever the exact figure, demobilisation planning will have to prepare for targeted assistance to those in need of special medical assistance.

The pilot study provided a brief overview of the labour market with the view to propose possible post-retrenchment employment for soldiers. The overview concluded that trends in the South African labour market indicated that, with the exception of the financial and public sectors, the current oversupply of labour will continue, thus militating against the easy absorption of retrenched soldiers into the formal economy. The conclusion of the pilot study was that, given the existing skill levels of the target group, coupled with trends in health and the labour market, the prospects for gainful employment (and thus integration into the economy and society at large) for retrenched soldiers were low. Furthermore, as the average length of service in the SANDF was five years, the retrenchment package (calculated in terms of the number of years served in the military) will be relatively low and not sufficient to provide for retrenched soldiers’ needs beyond four or five months.

Recommendations

Building upon the findings of the pilot study, a broader socio-economic study of the target group should be conducted to establish the particular social, economic and psychological needs and requirements of soldiers to be retrenched. In this way, a more comprehensive picture will be developed of the target group that will capture and integrate a variety of concerns, including provisions for counselling, facing retrenched soldiers.



On the basis of these findings (and enhanced by the details of a more thorough socio-economic study), a specialist skills and training enhancement programme should be developed to facilitate the integration of retrenched soldiers into the economy and society. Such a programme should take into account trends in the labour market to ensure that retrenched soldiers are trained or provided with skills enhancement that corresponds with the requirements of South Africa’s contemporary economy.