Chapter 2

INDICATORS OF FIREARM PENETRATION

Chapter overview

The chapter explores indicators of firearm penetration. Looking at both direct and indirect trends, evidence suggests that the communities of Kwa Mashu, Lekoa-Vaal and Tsolo-Qumbo do indeed have grounds for concern about the level of firearm penetration. Within these settlements, different types of area have deeper levels of firearm penetration than others.

The prevalence of firearms in the case-study communities is increasing. This is directly indicated by the frequency with which gunshots are heard as well as by the perceptions of the respondents. The focus groups indicate that the youth are those responsible for the increase in firearms as they are the main users of these weapons, as opposed to the women and very young or old men. The main reason cited across the sample for the increase in the number of firearms was the high level of accessibility.

Violent crime was considered commonplace in all three of the case-study communities. In Kwa Mashu, the most prevalent violent crime was murder. Although no information was collected on whether or not a firearm was the tool used for this crime, national murder statistics suggest that firearm-related murders are increasing as a proportion of the total number of murders. In Lekoa-Vaal and Kwa Mashu, mugging is also a significant crime involving a firearm7.

What is firearm penetration?

Firearm penetration is the measure of both the extent to which a firearm culture is entrenched within the community and the extent to which the community itself depends on firearms. There were a number of indicators in the survey that provided a useful indication of the level of firearm penetration within the three communities. Some of the indicators provided more direct verification of firearm trends than others.

National crime trends suggest that firearms are more readily used in crime nowadays than in previous years. The associated increase in the use of firearms in crimes such as murder implies that information on the nature of crime in a community would provide a useful indicator of firearm penetration. Indirect indicators of firearm penetration, such as the levels of violence, gang-related activities and household victimisation, would provide similar signals.

The direct indicators of firearm penetration include the frequency with which gunshots are heard, perceptions of the change in the number of firearms in the community, the level of associated (indirect) firearm possession and the level of direct firearm access. The measurement of these would provide a gauge for determining the extent to which firearms are commonplace in the community, as well as whether or not the prevalence of firearms is an increasing phenomenon.

It is necessary to use such indicators of firearm penetration, as direct questions about firearm ownership are often not answered truthfully. This is linked to the sensitivities surrounding firearm ownership within South Africa, as well as the fact that illegal firearm ownership is common. Some people do not want to admit to the illegal possession of firearms. Others may feel that there is stereotyping or stigmatisation linked to firearm ownership, while others fear, amongst other consequences, prosecution.

Given the fact that respondents often do not truthfully answer questions about individual indicators of firearm penetration, it was necessary to ask questions relating to a household and community level (as opposed to an individual level). One of the limitations of not obtaining information at the individual level is that the statistical data collected cannot be analysed demographically by age and gender. There is no disputing that both gender and age are relevant to the analysis of firearm-related indicators. For example, gender and age are directly linked to the level of victimisation, ease of access to a firearm and willingness to own a firearm and, perhaps less directly, to the frequency of hearing gunshots and level of gang activity in the community. For these reasons, when considering the indicators of firearm penetration within a community, only certain key demographic factors were used in the analysis, such as settlement area. Although race is pertinent in the South African context, owing to the fact that it often coincides with settlement area and type, it was not widely used in this analysis.

Most common types of crime

As a proportion of total crime, housebreaking and theft comprised 49.1% of the most common crimes identified. House-breaking and theft were highest in Tsolo-Qumbo (62.2%), Lekoa-Vaal hostels (59.6%) and Lekoa-Vaal formal areas (58.0%). Across all three settlement areas, there was a high proportion of violent crime (approximately half of all crime types identified). This is not uncommon in communities trapped within a culture of violence. Within these communities, when crime occurs the repercussions are usually more violent than in those communities that are not locked into a culture of violence.

Considering only the violent crimes, it was evident that, comparatively speaking, more violent crime is committed in all three settlement areas of Kwa Mashu and the Lekoa-Vaal informal areas than in the other settlements. It was found that in the Kwa Mashu urban formal areas, 66.3% of all crime was violent; in Kwa Mashu urban informal areas 52.8% of all crime was violent and in Kwa Mashu hostels half the crime was considered violent. The Lekoa-Vaal urban informal settlement also experienced a high proportion of violent crime, at 53.5% of all crime types.

Stabbing (5.8% of the Tsolo-Qumbo rural homesteads sample) and stock theft (4.0% of the Tsolo-Qumbo rural homesteads sample) were two types of crime that were unique to the rural environments of Tsolo and Qumbo.

It was interesting that crimes that could potentially be committed with a firearm did not feature as significantly as was expected, given the context of Kwa Mashu and Lekoa-Vaal - recognised as the most dangerous townships within South Africa. The crimes that need to be watched for the prevalence of firearm-related misuse include murder, armed robbery and car-jacking. The proportion of murders in which firearms were used was not determined from the study; however, national crime statistics indicate that more than half of all murders are committed with a firearm, and that this proportion is on the increase8. The reason why car-jacking did not feature as a significant violent crime is probably the low level of car ownership in these settlement areas.

The ratio of property crime to violent crime indicates how the misuse of firearms manifests itself differently in the various settlement areas. The table above indicates the proportion of property crime to violent crime.

Generally the ratio of 1:1 held in Lekoa-Vaal informal area, Kwa Mashu informal area and the Kwa Mashu hostels. This implies that for every one property crime that occurs, there is one violent crime. If firearms are commonplace in violent crimes, then the property crime to violent crime ratio can be used as an indicator of a change in firearms.

When analysing the answers to "What one crime occurs most in your area?", it was realised that there were a number of other questions that could have been asked to enhance the analysis, which could be included in future studies. These include the following:

For what one type of crime do you think that you are most at risk?



Is firearm-related crime a problem in your area? Why?



What type of method is most commonly used to commit murders in your area?

Although there was no indication of what proportion of violent crime was committed with firearms, for the purposes of this study it is assumed that it is a significant and increasing proportion.

Levels of violence and crime

Respondents were asked to indicate whether they felt levels of crime and violence had changed compared with those in previous years. Comparatively speaking, more respondents felt crime had increased (67.3%) than felt violence had increased (42.8%).

Those respondents that felt that crime had increased the most significantly were (in descending order) the Kwa Mashu urban informal respondents (96.0%), the Kwa Mashu hostel respondents (93.3%) and Kwa Mashu urban formal (85.8%). The lowest recorded perceived crime increase was amongst the respondents from Tsolo-Qumbo. Only 43.2% of the respondents from Tsolo-Qumbo felt that crime had increased in their area compared with previous years.

In response to the question, "Compared to previous years, do you think the level of violence has changed?", the answers closely reflect the changes in the levels of politically motivated violence. The most significant increase in violence wasexperienced by the Lekoa-Vaal urban formal sample (54.2% of these respondents felt violence had increased). The most significant decreases in violence were experienced by the Lekoa-Vaal hostel sample (55.6% of these respondents felt violence had decreased) and by the Kwa Mashu urban informal respondents (56.3% of these respondents felt violence had decreased).

Kwa Mashu snapshot: acceptability of violence In response to the question, "Under what circumstances is it acceptable to hit another person?" most of the Kwa Mashu youth (15 of 20) interviewed in the one-on-one qualitative interviews indicated that it was never acceptable. The other five respondents said that it was justifiable under the following circumstances: for self-defence or protection; in sports such as boxing, wresting and karate; and as a form of punishment. It is a matter for concern that violence is acceptable to a quarter of these respondents, and it is important, given that this would strongly inform the type of response they would manifest in a situation of conflict.

Level of household victimisation

Household victimisation is the extent to which household members have been victims of crime within a certain time period. In this study, it was measured as a 'yes' response to the question, "Have you or has someone in your household been a victim of crime in the past year?" here was a high prevalence of household victimisation amongst respondents from Kwa Mashu: 52.0% of the Kwa Mashu urban formal respondents; 46.7% of the Kwa Mashu hostel respondents; and 46.0% of the Kwa Mashu urban informal respondents. The lowest levels of victimisation occurred amongst the respondents from Tsolo-Qumbo rural homestead (22.1%) and amongst the Lekoa-Vaal urban informal respondents (19.9%).

Household victimisation provides a useful indicator of firearm penetration. Like crime and violence levels, it can imply a number of different scenarios, since individuals and households respond in different ways to victimisation: by, for instance, increasing the level of household security through target hardening; joining community structures (such as community policing forums); and obtaining other forms of self-defence (including firearms). Further research into what proportion of victims obtain firearms in response to household victimisation would greatly enhance the overall understanding of firearm proliferation.

Level of gang-related activity

In response to the question, "Are there gangs in your area?", 16.4% of the respondents felt that they "did not know" whether or not there was gang-related activity in their area. Considering only those respondents that answered positively, it was felt that overall gang activity existed in 59.7% of the cases, while in 40.3% of the cases there was no gang-related activity.

It was found that gangs were most prevalent in the Kwa Mashu urban informal areas (96.4%) and Kwa Mashu urban formal (83.1%) and in the Kwa Mashu hostels (56.8%). There was a correlation between the level of gang-related activity and household victimisation and a perceived increase in crime. This was demonstrated by the fact that the same rank order occurred for the level of gang-related activity, household victimisation and those who felt that crime had increased in their areas. Often, the increased level of gang activity is also closely associated with an increase in the level of firearms within the community, since firearms are one of the most common tools used by gangs for conducting their activities.

Not only the prevalence of gangs, but the strength of gangs within a specific area is important in assessing the level of gang activity. In order to appreciate the strength of gang activity, the mean score attributed to the question, "How strong are the gangs in your area?" needs to be analysed. A mean score of 1 indicates the highest gang strength and a mean score of 4 indicates the lowest gang strength.

Comparatively speaking, the greatest strength of the gangs was in the Kwa Mashu hostels (mean score of 1.2), Kwa Mashu urban informal areas (mean score of 1.4), and Kwa Mashu urban formal areas (mean score of 1.7). This would support the qualitative finding that gang activity in Kwa Mashu is on the increase and is a fairly recent phenomenon gripping the township. The lowest strength of gangs was found in Tsolo-Qumbo (mean score of 2.4).

Kwa Mashu snapshot: attitudes to gangs There were divergent views on the issue of gangs in Kwa Mashu. The majority of the youth respondents (13 of 20) had negative attitudes towards belonging to gangs. They felt that joining a gang to make a living was foolish. In response to the question, "Describe what it is like to be part of gangs", the following statements were made: "It is mostly concerned of killing innocent people." - Female, ordinary young person "What I can say is that they [gang members] are not living free and happy life." - Female school-going pupil "One feels big and feared by the community." - Female employed in the informal sector "They seem to think that they are the gods of this world." - Female, unemployed "It is a funny lifestyle living under threats." - Male, ordinary young person Most of the male respondents were reluctant to put any value judgements on record about gangs. They stated they could not comment since they had never been members of gangs. Two of the respondents felt that they personally would not join a gang, but conceded that it was the free choice of other people to pursue that line of engagement. Four of the respondents were in favour of gang lifestyles. All four of these respondents stated that being part of a gang was a nice way to make a living. Three of the four respondents felt that gangs were a relatively big phenomenon in Kwa Mashu. All those respondents that were pro gangs were either currently involved in illegal activities or had been in the recent past. In response to the question, "Describe what it is like being part of a gang", the following were said: "It is an enjoyable thing. You feel the sense of belonging." - Female involved in shoplifting "First, you do not run short of money and luxurious items. In the area you are a boss of your own." - Male involved in illegal activities (car thefts and taxi owner) "You feel like a man. And you do not fear things because you have your own people." - Male involved in illegal activities "To be part of a gang is [the] same like to be among your work mates. You plan things and do them together." - Male who had served time in prison for armed robbery

Frequency of hearing gunshots

Gunshots are heard most frequently in Kwa Mashu, slightly less frequently in Lekoa-Vaal and the least frequently in the area of Tsolo-Qumbo.

Across the entire sample, it was found that 45.5% of the respondents heard gunshots 'often', 33.2% heard gunshots 'sometimes', 13.9% heard gunshots 'seldom' and 7.4% 'never' heard gunshots in their community. As reflected in the mean scores, a greater proportion of respondents from Kwa Mashu 'often' heard gunshots than in other areas. It was found that 72.7% of the Kwa Mashu urban informal area residents, 71.4% of the Kwa Mashu urban formal area residents and 68.2% of the Kwa Mashu hostel residents heard gunshots 'often'.

The highest frequency of hearing gunshots occurred in the Kwa Mashu urban formal setting (mean score 1.4), Kwa Mashu urban informal area (mean score 1.5) and Kwa Mashu hostel areas (1.5). The frequency of hearing gunshots was lowest in the Tsolo-Qumbo area (mean score 2.4). The frequency of hearing gunshots may, however, be an unreliable indicator when comparing settlements from urban and rural contexts. In Tsolo-Qumbo, the large and uneven distances between homesteads could influence the ability of respondents to hear gunshots, while in the urban context respondents are located in close proximity. In addition, it is difficult to determine to what extent the respondents can distinguish gunshots from a car back-firing, especially given that car ownership and the movement of cars moving is lower in Tsolo-Qumbo than in Lekoa-Vaal and Kwa Mashu. There is a correlation between the frequency of hearing gunshots and perceived changes in the number of firearms. In those areas where firearm shots were heard most frequently, respondents indicated the greatest increase in the number of firearms.

Change in the number of firearms

It would seem that the number of firearms had increased in comparison with previous years, with 77.3% of the sample indicating this, as opposed to 13.3% indicating a decrease in firearms and 9.5% indicating that firearm levels were stabilising.

The answers to the question, "Do you think that there has been an increase or decrease in the number of firearms compared to previous years?" is indicative of both the actual experiences of the respondents and of their perceptions. In terms of their actual experience, the respondents could have personally seen more firearms in their neighbourhood, bought a firearm themselves or had a family member buy a firearm. On the other hand, they could have heard rumours of firearm-related activities, or directly linked firearms to the increase in gang activities or specific types of crime.

The number of firearms in Kwa Mashu appears to have increased the most significantly in comparison with previous years. It was found that 86.0% of the urban formal, 94.8% of the urban informal and 86.4% of the hostel respondents from Kwa Mashu felt that firearms had increased.

In contrast to the Kwa Mashu hostels, 30.6% of the Lekoa-Vaal hostel respondents felt that firearms had decreased in comparison with previous years. Similarly, 21.3% of the Tsolo-Qumbo rural homestead, 19.1% of the Lekoa-Vaal urban formal settlement respondents and 17.8% of the Lekoa-Vaal urban informal settlement respondents indicated that firearms had decreased. The reasons given for this perceived decrease are indicated in the table below. The main reason cited amongst those respondents (13.2% of the sample) that felt that the number of firearms were decreasing was the stabilisation of and/or decrease in crime and violence levels.

On the other hand, the main reason attributed to the perceived increase in firearms was the high availability of firearms (39.7%). This does not necessarily imply that there were greater firearm numbers, but that they were more easily available - especially illegal or unlicensed weapons. At the time of the survey, as is currently the case, the new firearm control legislation for South Africa has not been implemented. In addition to this, confusion created by the debate on the new firearm control legislation resulted in a saturation of the legal second-hand firearmmarket, as many firearm owners expected the new law to limit the number of legal firearms that could be licensed.

The second reason cited for the increase in the number of firearms was the rising crime and violence levels (as indicated by 30.3% of the respondents). This implies that people are obtaining firearms in reaction to both experiences of victimisation and perceived crime. The third reason for the increase in firearms was associated with the need for firearms to carry on criminal activities (as indicated by 13.4% of the respondents).

Amongst only those respondents that felt firearms had increased compared to previous years, the main reason given was high levels of firearm accessibility. This implies that increased availability of firearms, reduced costs of firearms and ease of access to firearms all contribute to firearm proliferation.

Respondents from the urban formal areas (Lekoa-Vaal formal sample at 44.6% and Kwa Mashu formal sample at 46.3%) and informal areas (Lekoa-Vaal informal sample at 46.5% and Kwa Mashu informal sample at 49.1%) generally attributed the increase in firearms to the high level of accessibility. Similar reasons were given by the respondents from the rural homestead areas (39.7%) and hostels (Lekoa-Vaal hostel sample at 40.0% and Kwa Mashu hostel sample at 34.2%).

There is no doubt that rising crime and violence also contribute to the proliferation of firearms, both as a tool for criminals committing crime and violence, and by potential victims in reaction to feelings of insecurity as a result of crime and violence.

Unlike those from other areas, the respondents from the rural homestead areas attributed the rise in firearms equally to the high level of accessibility (39.7%) and to perceptions of rising crime and violence.

Kwa Mashu and Tsolo-Qumbo focus groups: extent of firearm penetration

The focus groups confirmed that the number of firearms in Kwa Mashu and Tsolo-Qumbo had increased in comparison with previous years. In Tsolo-Qumbo this was attributed to the rise in stock thefts and the inability of the police to effectively prevent this crime. In Kwa Mashu, the rise of gangs was closely associated with the increase in firearms in the community.

It was commonplace to see youths with firearms. The youth of Tsolo-Qumbo often saw their peers with firearms. It was uncommon, however, to see young children or old people with guns. The youth focus group felt that carrying a firearm in Kwa Mashu placed one at risk of victimisation. The young people of Kwa Mashu said that it was only the gang members who openly carried firearms. Other young people not involved in gang activities were too scared to carry guns openly, as the gangs would steal their guns.

Views of the youth in Tsolo-Qumbo

All participants in both Tsolo and Qumbo agreed that firearms had increased in the past few years because of the high rate of theft, especially of stock. This had led to the formation of the anti-crime organisation called Umfela Ndawonye, which was formed to curb stock theft. When cases of stock theft went unchecked by the police the people started to lose confidence in the police force and took the law into their own hands. This in turn led to revenge attacks and violence, as other anti-crime groups were formed to oppose this organisation. Crime also escalated because of this, as criminals took advantage of the unstable situation by committing armed robberies. The police seem to get little or no co-operation from members of the communities. The main reason for this is that the community does not trust the police; they believe that the police regularly 'lose' case documents and consequently cases are left uninvestigated and criminals walk free.

To all male participants in both Tsolo and Qumbo it is not shocking to see their peers with firearms. This makes them also want to own firearms, as they say they are for protection against criminals and some believe that firearms will gain respect.

Views of the youth of Kwa Mashu

All the young people in the focus group felt that the number of firearms in Kwa Mashu had increased over the last few years. Previously it had been individuals who owned guns but now it was mainly gangs that owned the guns. Most of the people who were seen carrying guns were criminals and gangsters. Although a significant number of the youth owned guns, most of them did not carry these guns openly because the gangs would disarm them if they found out.

It was generally felt that gunfire was heard regularly at night and could often be heard as much as three times per night, depending on what area you lived in.

Of the 20 young people present, five said that they had friends or family who had been shot by a firearm. One young member's father had been shot and killed at his home, while another youth had seen his friend shot and killed at school. In both incidents gangs had been responsible for the killing. One youth said his brother's business had been held up by armed gunmen and his sister-in-law shot and injured. One youth spoke of his close friend accidentally shooting himself while cleaning his gun, and the last youth said his little sister had been shot in a shoot-out at the nearby shopping centre.

Views of women of Kwa Mashu

All 15 of the women felt that there had been a significant increase in the number of guns available in Kwa Mashu. Most women felt that it was rare to see young children or older people carrying guns, but that guns were very popular among the youth, who carried guns around all the time. Most young people, they felt, liked to carry guns. Most women did not carry guns and it was unusual to see a woman carrying a gun.

All the women in the group said that they often heard gunshots at night. One woman respondent said that the previous night she had been kept awake the whole night because a gunfight was going on. She went on to say that the next day one person was found dead.

Ten of the 15 women said they knew a friend or family member who was shot by a firearm. One woman present spoke of how she and her sister had been attacked by gangsters; her sister had got away but she was shot by the gangsters, one of whom was no older than 14 years. She spent two months in hospital and her back still hurts when it is cold.

Interpretation of findings

Comparatively speaking, this chapter provides the information with which to identify those areas most impacted upon by firearms. The areas are selected in terms of where the most violent crime occurs, where crime is on the increase, where victimisation is greatest, where gangs are most prevalent, where gunshots are most frequently heard and where the community perceive firearms to be increasing.

Using these indicators of firearm penetration, certain areas are singled out as being more negatively affected than others. These are the following:

The highest ratio of violent crime to property crime was evident in Kwa Mashu formal settlements, followed by the Lekoa-Vaal informal and the Kwa Mashu informal settlement areas.



The highest increase in violence was perceived in the Lekoa-Vaal formal settlement.



Crime increased in all settlement areas by more than two-thirds compared with previous years, except in the Tsolo-Qumbo settlement area.



The highest level of victimisation, increase in crime and level of gang activity occurred in the Kwa Mashu township (as witnessed in the formal settlement, the informal settlement and the hostel areas), as well as the highest frequency of hearing gunshots.

Thus it is no surprise that respondents from Kwa Mashu indicated the greatest perceived increase in firearms compared with the other areas.

The aim of this section was to demonstrate how indicators of firearm penetration could be used to assess the comparative extent of the problem and to gain some insight into how these indicators could be interpreted. Caution has to be exercised in interpreting the indicators, as the correlation between firearm penetration indicators and the increase in firearms is not necessarily causal or direct. Within the various settlement areas analysed, there was another aspect that came through strongly from the focus groups. The youth are seen - both by their peers and by the adult women in the community - as the group carrying firearms. Within the youth category, certain young people, such as those involved in gang activities, were singled out as more likely to carry firearms.

The main reason given for the increase in firearms was the high level of accessibility. This is particularly conducive to meeting the needs of the youth. Firstly, the youth want firearms and, secondly, they can get the firearms. Although the study did not focus attention on whether the firearms are licensed or not, it is probable that large proportions of these firearms are not licensed. This implies that the users of the weapon were not screened in any way for their suitability to carry a firearm, or for their ability to use the weapon with competence.

The second reason given for the increase in firearms was that they were obtained in reaction to the perception of rising crime and violence. It is probable that should the crime trends continue to show an increase, women in the community could start to carry firearms too - especially in the light of the feeling that the police in these settlements are not doing an adequate job.

Finally, this chapter provides a spatial dimension to firearm penetration. A higher penetration was found in the Kwa Mashu built environments than in the Lekoa-Vaal and Tsolo-Qumbo area. This chapter has demonstrated where the problem of firearm proliferation is located and how it is measured. The next chapter will explore who it is, within these localities, that possesses firearms.