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As this monograph goes to print, significant political and military events and developments, accompanied by a renewed flurry of diplomatic activity, are impacting upon the peace process in the Democratic Republic of Congo. On the one hand, key regional leaders such as Presidents Paul Kagame of Rwanda and Joseph Kabila of the DRC have engaged in talks in Nigeria, Angola, Zimbabwe, Tanzania and elsewhere in recent weeks. The subsequent joint commission is to review their mutual demands for the demilitarisation of the eastern Congo. These types of talks appear to reach across the divide that separates the opposing armed forces in the DRC, offering the prospects for bilateral agreements that could support the implementation of the Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement.
On the other hand, recent battles have been fought for the control of towns in the east, such as at Fizi along Lake Tanganyika and Kindu in Maniema province indicating that logistic and other support for groupings by both Kigali and Kinshasa continues. While various of the armed groups and their supporters appeared to be flaunting the ceasefire agreement monitored by MONUC, Kinshasa again announced the disarmament of 3 000 Hutu fighters in Kamina and its intention to repatriate these persons to Rwanda and allowed a UN team to visit the base.
Some of these developments appear to fly in the face of the ‘logic’ of peacemaking, and could either indicate a resurgence of the war, or more probably, efforts to gain strategic leverage in advance of the more modest Inter-Congolese Dialogue due to start in Addis Ababa on 15 October 2001. As is to be expected, the clamour for groups excluded from the Lusaka Agreement, such as the Mai Mai, to participate either in their own right or as part of one of the six delegations at the talks, has intensified. Similarly, the establishment of a reconciliation council by some of the parties to the conflict in North and South Kivu provinces points to a strong desire for inclusion in the dialogue, although the pre-emptive move towards a federal substructure for the Kivus is inevitably controversial.
Subsequent to the preparatory talks concluded so successfully in Gaborone from 20 to 24 August, the Consultative Committee of the Inter-Congolese dialogue met for two days in Nairobi in September 2001. Their concern that financial and other constraints may delay the start date in Addis Ababa has been realised. The first week of the dialogue will bring together 80 representatives to work on procedural matters. They will be joined by the rest of the delegates one week later, on 22 October. Some 330 delegates from the government, the armed and unarmed opposition, and civil society will eventually participate if these hurdles can be overcome. The peace process is, therefore, at a critical juncture. However, the momentum towards the dialogue in Addis Ababa continues to hold with some groups, such as the RCD-ML, already having announced the names of their delegates.
Also encouraging are reports that countries such as Angola and Uganda are apparently continuing with the withdrawal of their forces from the DRC. However, continued problems, delays, and perhaps perceived reversals along the many dimensions and layers of the peace process must be expected. The road to peace is a winding one, and there will be many potholes. MONUC has made this road traversable, at least for rugged travellers who are willing to stay the distance. With the support of the international community, regional leaders and a will to achieve peace in the DRC, a u-turn must surely be out of the question.
Jakkie Cilliers and Mark Malan
October 2001
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