The rationale for conducting this survey was that firearms are deemed to have a significant impact on Tanzanian society and that consequently the government felt that there was a need to determine more clearly where and how firearm-related instability manifests itself. Further to this the need to examine what capacity communities retain that could be utilised to address firearm dependency was also identified.

Given the above rationale the survey sought to highlight three main themes. Firstly, the nature and extent of firearm proliferation in Tanzania. Secondly, the manifestation of firearm proliferation and, in particular, the linkages and relationships between the various indicators surveyed and how these indicators impact and influence one another. Thirdly, to examine the development, capacity and dynamics of Tanzanian communities. In addressing the first two closely related themes it was hoped that the survey would further the understanding of firearm-related problems that could then guide governmental and non-governmental agencies in the development and targeting of strategies to reduce firearm dependency. That is, highlight what the specific problems are and where these problems are most acute, and as such, where is the greatest need for engagement. In looking at the final theme of community development it was hoped that the likely readiness of communities to engage with and embrace initiatives to tackle firearm dependency would be highlighted. Particular attention was to be paid to the development and engagement of community structures and personages with a view to further guiding the conceptualisation and targeting of community projects.

The indicators that outline the firearm situation in Tanzania—the perceived exposure to firearms in the community, firearm ownership and the perceived impact of, and consequent need to control, firearm use—suggest that firearms are having an increasing influence and impact in Tanzania, although overall the situation does not as yet constitute a crisis. However, firearm penetration appears to be serious in the regions of Kigoma, Kagera and Morogoro, and also, although to a lesser extent, in Arusha, Mwanza and Pwani. The overall exposure to firearms was relatively low across Tanzania while firearm ownership varied across the sample regions. Morogoro appears to have high levels of ownership and there also seems to be a high demand for firearms in the region. This suggests that the residents of Morogoro feel insecure and have identified firearms as a tool that can bolster their personal safety. Furthermore, the results of the survey indicate that in the short term the current high levels of demand in Morogoro are likely to persist. There also appear to be relatively high levels of firearm possession in Kagera and Kigoma, although the indicators suggest that much of this ownership may be of illicitly acquired or possessed firearms. Despite the relatively low levels of firearm penetration across Tanzania and the variation from region-to-region in terms of ownership and possession, there is very widespread support for improving and tightening controls on firearms.

By looking at responses with regard to perceptions of safety, the role of the police and crime, the broader picture of firearm proliferation in Tanzania begins to take shape. With the notable exceptions of Kagera and Kigoma, Tanzania appears to be a relatively safe place during daylight hours, and although the environment is perceived to be worse after dark—very markedly so in the regions of Pwani and Morogoro—the overall perception of security does not raise considerable concerns. What is immediately worthy of note is the apparent correlation between the high numbers of firearms in Kagera and Kigoma and the perceived sense of insecurity in these regions. The survey results also indicate that refugees have moved into these regions, suggesting that this may be one of the determining factors of instability and demand for firearms. There also appears to be a correlation between the high sense of insecurity after dark in Morogoro and the high incidence of firearm ownership. A similar but less obvious correlation can also be identified in Pwani where there is a generally poor safety situation and firearm ownership (as indicated by friends having a weapon) is relatively high. The other stark discovery made with regard to the general safety situation is the rising level of crime in Tanga. Fortunately, there does not appear to be a corresponding firearm problem but note should be taken of this perceived increase in the incidence of crime. At this point it should be re-iterated that the questions posed on the level of crime required a comparative response to be given, between present and past rates of crime. Consequently, Tanga may not be suffering high absolute levels of crime but merely experiencing a deteriorating crime environment. Whatever the current level of crime there remains a distinct possibility that a continuing deterioration in Tanga might, at some point, precipitate or accompany a worsening firearm situation, in terms of firearm use in the commissioning of crime and/or of possession and use as a means of self-defence. There is an obvious need to address rising crime in Tanga as a problem in and of itself but given the above, there is a further need to monitor and address the situation from a firearms control perspective.

Conclusions drawn from the social and safety indicators of perceptions of the level of peacefulness and of the trust in and quality of the police service tend to reinforce one another. With regard to the role players turned to for conflict resolution, it is interesting that only in Kagera did a significant proportion of respondents turn to the police. Tribal leaders and existing community leaders were considered to be much better suited to conflict resolution. This suggests that the overall perception of the utility of the police may not be so good.

A further piece of the firearms jigsaw is put in place when the indicators of the economic environment are considered. In isolation these indicators point towards an impending economic downturn in a number of areas, namely Kagera, Kigoma, Mbeya, Morogoro and Tanga. However, despite the apparent economic downturn people do not seem to be going hungry. Those regions in which a serious firearm problem has been identified—Kigoma, Kagera and Morogoro—were also among those that appear to be entering a period of economic decline. A correlation between a worsening economic situation and a poor perceived sense of safety is also evident in these regions, as it is in Tanga, where rising levels of crime were identified. This suggests that there may be some form of link between the perception of safety and the general economic situation in these regions. However, no such relationship between economic decline and possession of firearms and/or a sense of insecurity within one's community is evident in Mbeya, where firearm penetration is relatively low and security deemed to be good.

The other set of indicators measured in the survey was that of social environment, focusing particularly on community structures, cohesion and interaction. Within the context of the survey these indicators can point towards the possible links between economic and security conditions and firearm penetration as well as throwing light upon the available social resources for, and willingness to participate in, community based projects to reduce firearm dependency. The overall impression is of a society in which social interaction is relatively good, although there was a fairly high degree of variation across the individual indicators and consequently clear trends were difficult to identify. In Kagera, perhaps the region with the most serious firearms problems and also one apparently blighted by high levels of insecurity and a deteriorating economic situation, perceptions of the community leaders and of the willingness of community members to work together were not particularly good. Conversely, however, responses regarding the willingness to help other members of the community and perceptions of development in Kagera suggest that general community interaction is, nevertheless, well-developed. This trend of positive responses to some indicators and more negative responses to others is found across all of the sample regions. Consequently, comparative analysis of indicators of the security and economic environments and of the degree of firearm of penetration throw up few obvious correlations. One interesting observation that can be made, however, regards the general economic situation in some of the sample regions and the perception of development within the community. In Kagera and Morogoro, despite indications that these regions are entering a period of economic decline, there is a general perception that development was improving. However, in Tanga development was perceived to be poor and the economic situation appeared to be worsening. In this region communities were also experiencing rising rates of crime.

The above concluding remarks highlight some of the key findings of the survey in terms of firearm penetration and the socio-economic environment within which this phenomenon manifests itself. We have also pointed to some of the apparent correlations between the different indicators and at points within the preceding chapters on possible determining factors. However, where observations have been made and correlations pointed out this does not mean to imply that there are causal links. This may or may not be the case but speculation or more reasoned assertion of these links is beyond the scope of this report. What this section has so far outlined should provide a greater understanding of the nature and extent of firearm proliferation and also the socio-economic conditions that pertain in the regions sampled. In so doing, the particular objective of the report is to provide information for the development and targeting of initiatives to redress firearm dependency. Given this objective and the overview of conditions within the sample regions already provided, the final area in which indicators were measured was on the community structures, cohesion and interaction. These were surveyed with a view to guiding the design and targeting of community-based strategies to address firearm proliferation.

Encouragingly, community structures, cohesion and interaction were generally good across Tanzania and there was a high level of willingness to participate in community-based awareness projects which, when combined with the high recognition of firearm proliferation as a problem worthy of attention, bode well for the initiation of community-based firearm projects. In contemplating how to develop community-based projects, a number of general considerations should be borne in mind. The funding of any initiatives need to be carefully considered as the financial resources available within and likely to be contributed by communities are limited. Tanzania is a very poor country and survey responses suggest that a number of communities are tightening their belts as economic conditions deteriorate. In addition, there appears to be a relatively low willingness to lend money and provide food to others in the community as well as greater concern over issues like HIV/AIDS and malaria than over firearm injuries. Funding for community-based firearms projects will thus have to be very carefully considered. Ensuring that the objectives of any project are clearly stated and are demonstrable, that the project is transparently and efficiently run, that any projects are seen through to their natural end and that engagement from any outside agencies is long-standing and unequivocal will greatly enhance the people's readiness to engage in, the active support for and success of any community initiatives.

The structures and people used to implement initiatives will also be important to ensuring the success of community-based projects. The degree of trust and faith in community leaders and in the police should be considered. Where the quality of the police service is deemed to be poor particular projects to enhance both the actual quality of the police service should be contemplated as well as initiatives that enhance the public perception of the police and the level of interaction with the community.