The global proliferation of conventional arms often seems to be an overlooked dimension of international security. An area of arms control that has gained less international attention than weapons of mass destruction, conventional weapons are more likely to be used in current and future conflicts than chemical, biological or nuclear weapons. Defence spending declined significantly over the past ten years: during the Cold War it reached US $1,284 billion in 1988, while, for 1994, it was US $844 billion globally. Of this, the Middle East and Persian Gulf were the largest purchasers of weaponry in the developing world, accounting for 54 per cent of all sales to developing countries between 1992 and 1995. These two regions are projected to remain the largest external markets for supplier countries through 2000 (notwithstanding the recent economic difficulties among countries in the Asia-Pacific).

This book, an accessible and well-written volume, gives a comprehensive description of the current state of the international arms trade, including:

the policies and practices of the major arms suppliers;



the impact of weapons purchases on recipient regions, specifically the Middle East, Persian Gulf, Asia-Pacific and South Asia;



the economics of defence industries and arms exports within supplier countries; and



discussions on the feasibility of developing an international regime for controlling conventional arms transfers.

With the demise of the Soviet Union and the relative collapse of the Russian arms industry, the United States has emerged as the largest manufacturer and supplier of conventional armaments. In 1995, it accounted for 44 per cent of all arms deliveries, followed by the United Kingdom with seventeen per cent. Thus, as this book clearly states, the development of systems of controls must by necessity include the US, and those most likely to succeed, will probably be those which the US has proposed or endorsed.

In the last chapter, Andrew Pierre discusses some of the current arms control initiatives that could be modified to provide for the management of arms transfers. He notes that the management of arms transfers is feasible in theory, given the relatively small number of countries that are the main arms suppliers (in 1995 six countries accounted for almost 87 per cent of the world conventional arms deliveries) and the shift in thinking by supplier countries to accept that there is a responsibility on their side for the control of weapons (for example, to prevent accumulations of weapons that may upset regional balances). Thus, the Wassenaar Arrangement, the United Nations Register of Conventional Arms and the proposed European Code of Conduct are discussed as mechanisms for managing arms transfers. However, none of these currently make provision for the prior notification of arms transfers, a flaw that undermines the ability to manage the arms trade effectively. Thus, the international regime proposed by Pierre is one that is multifaceted, with overlapping and complementary institutions and initiatives, none of which may be fully adequate on their own, but will be mutually reinforcing. He suggests that this regime would "be akin to a broad and flexible process, designed to manage the international arms trade so as to reduce the risk of dangerous, destabilising weapons transfers and other undesirable consequences."

This book represents the latest of several excellent, comprehensive books on the arms trade and is the most current in its discussions of recent initiatives and the state of the arms trade with the dramatic changes in defence industries, military expenditure and arms trade. It will be of interest to those who work in arms control and those who have an interest in what drives the producers and purchasers of weapons around the world.

Sarah Meek
Senior Researcher
Arms Management Programme

Mark Swilling (ed.), Governing Africa's Cities, Witwatersrand University Press, Johannesburg, 280 pp.

It has been estimated that the world's population - which stood at 5,3 billion in 1990 - will stand at 8,5 billion by the year 2025. Much of this growth will be taking place in the urban areas of developing countries as a result of both population growth and rural-urban migration. The consequence of this, according to the historian Paul Kennedy, is the emergence of megacities in the developing world which are the epitome of poverty and social collapse. This is perhaps best illustrated by the fact that, while New York has a population density of 11 400 per square mile, the figure for Lagos is 143 000!

In this situation, the challenge of urban governance will increasingly dominate the agenda of African decision-makers. In this timely book, Swilling brings together a cross-section of African experts to critically analyse the challenge of urban governance to the African polity as we approach the new millennium. The result is a theoretically sound, policy-relevant book which, while cognisant of the common problems faced by African states, is also aware of the regional specificities in North Africa, Anglophone West Africa, East Africa, Francophone Africa, and Southern Africa.

According to Swilling, as Africa approaches the twenty-first century, five factors will shape its leadership's policy choices. These are:

international 'consensus' on the need for some sort of democratic governance;



the imposition of free market economy principles;



Africa as the continent with the highest urbanisation rate in the world at just below five per cent per annum;



severe negative pressures placed on the environment; and



increased demands for sustainable livelihoods emanating from an enfranchised population as a result of economic liberalisation and political democratisation.

Taken together, these factors will shape approaches and strategies of the state and non-state actors towards good governance. In this context, Swilling makes a compelling case that good governance cannot occur through a "centralised political system that disempowers both lower levels of the state system and non-state actors. Decentralisation is assumed to be a necessary condition for democratisation." Swilling goes even further in his statement that, without strong, local government, effective delivery will be impossible. In this way, effective urban governance, implies democratic state-building. This is a particularly important point for South Africa to consider given the problems surrounding its Reconstruction and Development Programme.

For members of local authorities seeking to read this book for relevant policy guidelines, the book is premised on an unpalatable truth: "African cities are shaped, driven and transformed by processes that the state system has virtually no control over." This, then, presupposes that state actors, of necessity, need to forge working partnerships with civil society and the business sector in order to realise the goal of effective urban governance. The importance of this to the African continent as a whole cannot be overstated. After all, Swilling notes that Africa's future may well be an urban future.

In conclusion, this is a deeply insightful book, recommended to both policy-makers and academics.

Hussein Solomon
Senior Researcher
Operational African Security Information Service (OASIS)